Department of Community Medicine and Behavioural Sciences, Faculty of Medicine, Kuwait University, Kuwait.
Traffic Inj Prev. 2013;14(7):743-8. doi: 10.1080/15389588.2012.749466.
This study aimed to examine the effect of a penalty points system (PPS) implemented in early July 2006 on the number of severe road traffic injuries (RTIs) in Kuwait.
Monthly counts of RTIs that occurred between January 2003 and December 2009 were analyzed. We used an interrupted seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average model (SARIMA) to estimate the intervention parameter along with its 95 percent confidence interval (CI) after accounting for seasonal and trend components in the data series. Based on the SARIMA model, we computed the number of RTIs that would have occurred post-PPS for 42 months after July 1, 2006, if it had not been implemented.
During the study period, a total of 4696 RTIs occurred. The Poisson rates of injuries (per 10 million of mean mid-year population and per 10 million of annual mean number of registered vehicles) were significantly (P < .001) lower in the post-PPS (λ(post-PPS) = 7 and 16, respectively) than the pre-PPS (λ(pre-PPS) = 9 and 23, respectively) implementation period. The intervention parameter's estimate was -7.68 (95% CI: -14.77, -0.60), suggesting that 322 (95% CI: 25, 620) individuals would have had RTIs in the 42 months post-PPS enactment, had it not been implemented. This translates to a 14.6 percent (95% CI: 1.1%, 28.0%) reduction.
These findings suggest that PPS implementation in Kuwait appears to have resulted in a significant reduction in the number of RTIs in the ensuing period. Therefore, PPS seems a feasible and effective approach in reducing RTIs in Kuwait and other countries in the region, if adequately implemented. Future studies may focus on evaluating the long-term effects of PPS implementation.
本研究旨在探讨 2006 年 7 月初实施的扣分制（PPS）对科威特严重道路交通伤害（RTI）数量的影响。
分析了 2003 年 1 月至 2009 年 12 月期间每月发生的 RTI 计数。我们使用季节性自回归综合移动平均模型（SARIMA）来估计干预参数及其 95%置信区间（CI），同时考虑了数据序列中的季节性和趋势成分。基于 SARIMA 模型，如果没有实施 PPS，我们计算了自 2006 年 7 月 1 日后的 42 个月内 PPS 实施后的 RTI 数量。
在研究期间，共发生了 4696 起 RTI。受伤的泊松率（每 1000 万中年人口和每 1000 万注册车辆的年均数）在 PPS 后（λ（PPS 后）= 7 和 16，分别）显著低于 PPS 前（λ（PPS 前）= 9 和 23，分别）。干预参数的估计值为-7.68（95%CI：-14.77，-0.60），表明如果不实施 PPS，42 个月后 PPS 实施后将有 322 人（95%CI：25，620）发生 RTI。这相当于减少 14.6%（95%CI：1.1%，28.0%）。
这些发现表明，科威特实施 PPS 似乎导致了随后期间 RTI 数量的显著减少。因此，如果得到充分实施，PPS 似乎是减少科威特和该地区其他国家 RTI 的一种可行且有效的方法。未来的研究可能侧重于评估 PPS 实施的长期影响。
