Zhao Ang, Chen Renjie, Qi Yongqing, Chen Ailan, Chen Xinyu, Liang Zijing, Ye Jianjun, Liang Qing, Guo Duanqiang, Li Wanglin, Li Shuangming, Kan Haidong
School of Public Health, Key Lab of Public Health Safety of the Ministry of Education, & Key Lab of Health Technology Assessment of the Ministry of Health, Fudan University.
J Epidemiol. 2016 Aug 5;26(8):433-9. doi: 10.2188/jea.JE20140103. Epub 2016 Mar 5.
Road-traffic injury (RTI) is a major public-health concern worldwide. However, the effectiveness of laws criminalizing drunk driving on the improvement of road safety in China is not known.
We collected daily aggregate data on RTIs from the Guangzhou First-Aid Service Command Center from 2009 to 2012. We performed an interrupted time-series analysis to evaluate the change in daily RTIs before (January 1, 2009, to April 30, 2011) and after (May 1, 2011, to December 31, 2012) the criminalization of drunk driving. We evaluated the impact of the intervention on RTIs using the overdispersed generalized additive model after adjusting for temporal trends, seasonality, day of the week, and holidays. Daytime/Nighttime RTIs, alcoholism, and non-traffic injuries were analyzed as comparison groups using the same model.
From January 1, 2009, to December 31, 2012, we identified a total of 54 887 RTIs. The standardized daily number of RTIs was almost stable in the pre-intervention period but decreased gradually in the post-intervention period. After the intervention, the standardized daily RTIs decreased 9.6% (95% confidence interval [CI], 6.5%-12.8%). There were similar decreases for the daily daytime and nighttime RTIs. In contrast, the standardized daily cases of alcoholism increased 38.8% (95% CI, 35.1%-42.4%), and daily non-traffic injuries increased 3.6% (95% CI, 1.4%-5.8%).
This time-series study provides scientific evidence suggesting that the criminalization of drunk driving from May 1, 2011, may have led to moderate reductions in RTIs in Guangzhou, China.
道路交通伤害（RTI）是全球主要的公共卫生问题。然而，在中国，将酒后驾车定为刑事犯罪的法律对改善道路安全的有效性尚不清楚。
我们收集了2009年至2012年广州急救服务指挥中心的道路交通伤害每日汇总数据。我们进行了中断时间序列分析，以评估酒后驾车刑事定罪之前（2009年1月1日至2011年4月30日）和之后（2011年5月1日至2012年12月31日）每日道路交通伤害的变化。在调整时间趋势、季节性、星期几和节假日后，我们使用过度分散广义相加模型评估了该干预措施对道路交通伤害的影响。使用相同模型将白天/夜间道路交通伤害、酗酒和非交通伤害作为比较组进行分析。
2009年1月1日至2012年12月31日，我们共识别出54887起道路交通伤害事件。干预前每日道路交通伤害的标准化数量几乎稳定，但在干预后逐渐下降。干预后，每日道路交通伤害的标准化数量下降了9.6%（95%置信区间[CI]，6.5%-12.8%）。白天和夜间的每日道路交通伤害也有类似程度的下降。相比之下，每日酗酒的标准化病例数增加了38.8%（95%CI，35.1%-42.4%），每日非交通伤害增加了3.6%（95%CI，1.4%-5.8%）。
这项时间序列研究提供了科学证据，表明2011年5月1日将酒后驾车定为刑事犯罪可能导致中国广州的道路交通伤害适度减少。
