Department of Global Health and Development, Faculty of Public Health and Policy, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, UK.
Health Econ. 2013 Jul;22(7):824-34. doi: 10.1002/hec.2862.
By examining tourist arrivals and pork output and trade statistics, this analysis estimates the economic impact to the Mexican tourism and pork sectors because of the H1N1 influenza pandemic. It also assesses the role of the international response in the context of this economic impact. For tourism, losing almost a million overseas visitors translated into losses of around $US2.8bn, which extended over a five-month period, mostly because of the slow return of European travellers. For the pork industry, temporal decreases in output were observed in most of the country and related to H1N1 incidence (p = 0.048, r = 0.37). By the end of 2009, Mexico had a pork trade deficit of $US27m. The losses derived from this pandemic were clearly influenced by the risk perception created in tourist-supplying and pork trade partners. Results suggest that the wider economic implications of health-related emergencies can be significant and need to be considered in preparedness planning. For instance, more effective surveillance and data gathering would enable policy to target emergency funding to the sectors and regions hardest hit. These results also stress the importance of being familiar with trade networks so as to be able to anticipate the international response and respond accordingly.
本分析通过考察旅游入境人数和猪肉产量与贸易统计数据，估算了 H1N1 流感大流行对墨西哥旅游业和猪肉行业的经济影响，并评估了国际应对措施在这一经济影响背景下所发挥的作用。对于旅游业来说，近 100 万海外游客的流失导致约 28 亿美元的损失，这一损失持续了五个月，主要是因为欧洲游客的回流速度较慢。对于猪肉行业，该国大部分地区的猪肉产量都出现了暂时下降，这与 H1N1 的发病率有关（p=0.048，r=0.37）。到 2009 年底，墨西哥的猪肉贸易逆差达到 2700 万美元。这场大流行带来的损失显然受到了旅游客源国和猪肉贸易伙伴风险认知的影响。研究结果表明，与健康相关的突发事件所带来的更广泛的经济影响可能是巨大的，因此在备灾规划中需要加以考虑。例如，更有效的监测和数据收集将使政策能够将应急资金投向受影响最严重的部门和地区。这些结果还强调了熟悉贸易网络的重要性，以便能够预测国际应对措施并做出相应反应。
