Schwartz J, Marcus A
Environmental Protection Agency, Washington, DC 20460.
Am J Epidemiol. 1990 Jan;131(1):185-94. doi: 10.1093/oxfordjournals.aje.a115473.
The relation between air pollution and mortality in London was examined for the winters of 1958-1972. The data exhibited a high degree of autocorrelation, requiring analyses using autoregressive models. There was a highly significant relation between mortality and either particulate matter or sulfur dioxide (after controlling for temperature and humidity), both overall and in each individual year. Graphic analysis revealed a nonlinear relation with no threshold, and a steeper exposure-response curve at lower air pollution levels. In models with both pollutants, particulate matter remained a significant predictor with about a 10% reduction in its estimated coefficients, while sulfur dioxide was insignificant, with a large drop in its estimated coefficient. The authors conclude that particulates are strongly associated with mortality rates in London, and the relation is likely causal.
对1958年至1972年冬季伦敦空气污染与死亡率之间的关系进行了研究。数据呈现出高度的自相关性，需要使用自回归模型进行分析。总体而言以及在每一年中，死亡率与颗粒物或二氧化硫（在控制了温度和湿度之后）之间存在高度显著的关系。图形分析显示出一种无阈值的非线性关系，并且在较低空气污染水平下暴露-反应曲线更陡峭。在包含两种污染物的模型中，颗粒物仍然是一个显著的预测因子，其估计系数降低了约10%，而二氧化硫不显著，其估计系数大幅下降。作者得出结论，颗粒物与伦敦的死亡率密切相关，并且这种关系可能是因果关系。
