Dunn Richard A, Tefft Nathan W
Texas A&M University, TX, USA.
Health Econ. 2014 Nov;23(11):1374-89. doi: 10.1002/hec.2991. Epub 2013 Aug 30.
We develop a model of alcohol consumption that incorporates the negative biological relationship between body mass and inebriation conditional on total alcohol consumption. Our model predicts that the elasticity of inebriation with respect to weight is equal to the own-price elasticity of alcohol, consistent with body mass increasing the effective price of inebriation. Given that alcohol is generally considered price inelastic, this result implies that as individuals gain weight, they consume more alcohol but become less inebriated. We test this prediction and find that driver blood alcohol content (BAC) is negatively associated with driver weight. In fatal accidents with driver BAC above 0.10, the driver was 7.8 percentage points less likely to be obese than drivers in fatal accidents that did not involve alcohol. This relationship is not explained by driver attributes (age and sex), driver behaviors (speed and seatbelt use), vehicle attributes (weight class, model year, and number of occupants), or accident context (county of accident, time of day, and day of week).
我们构建了一个酒精消费模型，该模型纳入了在总酒精消费量既定的情况下，体重与醉酒程度之间的负面生物学关系。我们的模型预测，醉酒程度相对于体重的弹性等于酒精的自身价格弹性，这与体重增加醉酒的有效价格相一致。鉴于酒精通常被认为是价格缺乏弹性的，这一结果意味着，随着个体体重增加，他们会消费更多酒精，但醉酒程度会降低。我们对这一预测进行了检验，发现驾驶员血液酒精含量（BAC）与驾驶员体重呈负相关。在驾驶员BAC高于0.10的致命事故中，与未涉及酒精的致命事故中的驾驶员相比，涉事驾驶员肥胖的可能性要低7.8个百分点。这种关系无法用驾驶员属性（年龄和性别）、驾驶员行为（速度和安全带使用情况）、车辆属性（重量级别、车型年份和乘客数量）或事故背景（事故发生县、一天中的时间和一周中的日期）来解释。
