Laboratory of Geospatial Technology for the Middle and Lower Yellow River Regions, Ministry of Education, Henan University, Kaifeng, 475004, Henan, China.
Institute of Urban Big Data, College of Environment and Planning, Henan University, Kaifeng, 475004, Henan, China.
BMC Public Health. 2019 Nov 8;19(1):1491. doi: 10.1186/s12889-019-7619-y.
Hand, foot and mouth disease (HFMD) incidence is a critical challenge to disease control and prevention in parts of China, particularly Guangxi. However, the association between socioeconomic factors and meteorological factors on HFMD is still unclear.
This study applied global and local Moran's I to examine the spatial pattern of HFMD and series analysis to explore the temporal pattern. The effects of meteorological factors and socioeconomic factors on HFMD incidence in Guangxi, China were analyzed using GeoDetector Model.
This study collected 45,522 cases from 87 counties in Guangxi during 2015, among which 43,711 cases were children aged 0-4 years. Temporally, there were two HFMD risk peaks in 2015. One peak was in September with 7890 cases. The other appeared in May with 4687 cases of HFMD. A high-risk cluster was located in the valley areas. The tertiary industry, precipitation and second industry had more influence than other risk factors on HFMD incidence with explanatory powers of 0.24, 0.23 and 0.21, respectively. The interactive effect of any two risk factors would enhance the risk of HFMD.
This study suggests that precipitation and tertiary industry factors might have stronger effects on the HFMD incidence in Guangxi, China, compared with other factors. High-risk of HFMD was identified in the valley areas characterized by high temperature and humidity. Local government should pay more attention and strengthen public health services level in this area.
手足口病（HFMD）发病率是中国部分地区，特别是广西疾病防控的重大挑战。然而，社会经济因素和气象因素与 HFMD 的相关性尚不清楚。
本研究采用全局和局部 Moran's I 检验分析 HFMD 的空间分布，采用序列分析探索其时间分布。应用 GeoDetector 模型分析气象因素和社会经济因素对广西手足口病发病率的影响。
本研究共收集了 2015 年广西 87 个县的 45522 例病例，其中 43711 例为 0-4 岁儿童。从时间上看，2015 年有两个 HFMD 发病高峰。一个高峰出现在 9 月，有 7890 例。另一个高峰出现在 5 月，有 4687 例 HFMD。高危聚集区位于河谷地区。第三产业、降水量和第二产业对 HFMD 发病率的影响大于其他风险因素，解释能力分别为 0.24、0.23 和 0.21。任何两个风险因素的交互作用都会增强 HFMD 的发病风险。
本研究表明，降水和第三产业因素对中国广西手足口病发病率的影响可能比其他因素更强。在高温高湿的河谷地区，HFMD 的发病风险较高。地方政府应更加关注该地区，加强公共卫生服务水平。
