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气象因素能否预测儿童群体中的哮喘发作?

Can meteorological factors forecast asthma exacerbation in a paediatric population?

作者信息

Hervás D, Utrera J F, Hervás-Masip J, Hervás J A, García-Marcos L

机构信息

University Institute of Health Sciences-IUNICS, University of the Balearic Islands, Spain; Department of Paediatrics, Inca Hospital, Mallorca Spain.

Department of Paediatrics, Inca Hospital, Mallorca Spain.

出版信息

Allergol Immunopathol (Madr). 2015 Jan-Feb;43(1):32-6. doi: 10.1016/j.aller.2013.07.004. Epub 2013 Oct 26.

DOI:10.1016/j.aller.2013.07.004
PMID:24168972
Abstract

BACKGROUND

Asthma exacerbations attended in emergency departments show a marked seasonality in the paediatric age. This seasonal pattern can change from one population to another and the factors involved are poorly understood.

OBJECTIVES

To evaluate the association between meteorological factors and schooling with asthma exacerbations in children attended in the paediatric emergency department of a district hospital.

METHODS

We conducted a retrospective review of the medical records of children 5-14 years of age attended for asthma exacerbations during a 4-year period (2007-2011). Climatic data were obtained from a weather station located very close to the population studied. The number of asthma exacerbations was correlated to temperature, barometric pressure, relative humidity, rainfall, wind speed, wind distance, solar radiation, water vapour pressure and schooling, using regression analyses.

RESULTS

During the study period, 371 children were attended for asthma exacerbations; median age was eight years (IQR: 6-11), and 59% were males. Asthma exacerbations showed a bimodal pattern with peaks in spring and summer. Maximum annual peak occurred in week 39, within 15 days from school beginning after the summer holidays. A regression model with mean temperature, water vapour pressure, relative humidity, maximum wind speed and schooling could explain 98.4% (p<0.001) of monthly asthma exacerbations.

CONCLUSIONS

The combination of meteorological factors and schooling could predict asthma exacerbations in children attended in a paediatric emergency department.

摘要

背景

在儿科年龄段,急诊科收治的哮喘急性发作呈现出明显的季节性。这种季节性模式在不同人群中可能会有所变化,且其中涉及的因素尚不清楚。

目的

评估气象因素和上学情况与一家区级医院儿科急诊科收治的儿童哮喘急性发作之间的关联。

方法

我们对2007年至2011年这4年间因哮喘急性发作就诊的5至14岁儿童的病历进行了回顾性研究。气候数据来自一个距离所研究人群非常近的气象站。使用回归分析将哮喘急性发作的次数与温度、气压、相对湿度、降雨量、风速、风程、太阳辐射、水汽压和上学情况进行关联。

结果

在研究期间,有371名儿童因哮喘急性发作就诊;中位年龄为8岁(四分位间距:6至11岁),59%为男性。哮喘急性发作呈现双峰模式,在春季和夏季达到高峰。年度最大峰值出现在第39周,即在暑假后开学后的15天内。一个包含平均温度、水汽压、相对湿度、最大风速和上学情况的回归模型可以解释每月哮喘急性发作情况的98.4%(p<0.001)。

结论

气象因素和上学情况的综合作用可以预测儿科急诊科收治儿童的哮喘急性发作。

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