Erickson Darin J, Carlin Bradley P, Lenk Kathleen M, Quick Harrison S, Harwood Eileen M, Toomey Traci L
Division of Epidemiology and Community Health, School of Public Health, University of Minnesota, 1300 South Second Street, Suite 300, Minneapolis, MN, 55454, USA,
Prev Sci. 2015 Feb;16(2):254-64. doi: 10.1007/s11121-013-0446-y.
Although numerous studies have found a positive association between the density of alcohol establishments and various types of crime, few have examined how neighborhood attributes (e.g., schools, parks) could moderate this association. We used data from Minneapolis, MN with neighborhood as the unit of analysis (n = 83). We examined eight types of crime (assault, rape, robbery, vandalism, nuisance crime, public alcohol consumption, driving while intoxicated, underage alcohol possession/consumption) and measured density as the total number of establishments per roadway mile. Neighborhood attributes assessed as potential moderators included non-alcohol businesses, schools, parks, religious institutions, neighborhood activism, neighborhood quality, and number of condemned houses. Using Bayesian techniques, we created a model for each crime outcome (accounting for spatial auto-correlation and controlling for relevant demographics) with an interaction term (moderator × density) to test each potential moderating effect. Few interaction terms were statistically significant. The presence of at least one college was the only neighborhood attribute that consistently moderated the density-crime association, with the presence of a college attenuating the association between the density and three types of crime (assaults, nuisance crime, and public consumption). However, caution should be used when interpreting the moderating effect of college presence because of the small number of colleges in our sample. The lack of moderating effects of neighborhood attributes, except for presence of a college, suggests that the addition of alcohol establishments to any neighborhood, regardless of its other attributes, could result in an increase in a wide range of crime.
尽管众多研究发现酒类经营场所的密度与各类犯罪之间存在正相关关系，但很少有研究考察邻里特征（如学校、公园）如何调节这种关联。我们使用了明尼阿波利斯市的数据，以邻里作为分析单位（n = 83）。我们考察了八种犯罪类型（袭击、强奸、抢劫、故意破坏财物、滋扰犯罪、公共场所饮酒、醉酒驾驶、未成年人持有/消费酒精），并将密度衡量为每英里道路上经营场所的总数。被评估为潜在调节因素的邻里特征包括非酒类企业、学校、公园、宗教机构、邻里活跃度、邻里质量以及被查封房屋的数量。我们使用贝叶斯技术，针对每种犯罪结果创建了一个模型（考虑空间自相关性并控制相关人口统计学因素），并带有一个交互项（调节因素×密度）来检验每种潜在的调节作用。几乎没有交互项具有统计学显著性。至少有一所学院是唯一始终能调节密度与犯罪关联的邻里特征，学院的存在减弱了密度与三种犯罪类型（袭击、滋扰犯罪和公共场所饮酒）之间的关联。然而，由于我们样本中的学院数量较少，在解释学院存在的调节作用时应谨慎。除了学院的存在外，邻里特征缺乏调节作用表明，在任何邻里增加酒类经营场所，无论其其他特征如何，都可能导致各类犯罪率上升。
