Sartorius Kurt, Sartorius Benn, Tollman Stephen, Schatz Enid, Kirsten Johann, Collinson Mark
School of Accountancy, Faculty of Commerce, Law and Management, University of the Witwatersrand Johannesburg, South Africa.
School of Public Health, Faculty of Health Sciences, University of the Witwatersrand Johannesburg, South Africa.
Popul Space Place. 2013 Jan;19(1):103-123. doi: 10.1002/psp.697. Epub 2011 Nov 2.
The assimilation of refugees into their host community economic structures is often problematic. The paper investigates the ability of refugees in rural South Africa to accumulate assets over time relative to their host community. Bayesian spatial-temporal modelling was employed to analyse a longitudinal database that indicated that the asset accumulation rate of former Mozambican refugee households was similar to their host community; however, they were unable to close the wealth gap. A series of geo-statistical wealth maps illustrate that there is a spatial element to the higher levels of absolute poverty in the former refugee villages. The primary reason for this is their physical location in drier conditions that are established further away from facilities and infrastructure. Neighbouring South African villages in close proximity, however, display lower levels of absolute poverty, suggesting that the spatial location of the refugees only partially explains their disadvantaged situation. In this regard, the results indicate that the wealth of former refugee households continues to be more compromised by higher mortality levels, poorer education, and less access to high-return employment opportunities. The long-term impact of low initial asset status appears to be perpetuated in this instance by difficulties in obtaining legal status in order to access state pensions, facilities, and opportunities. The usefulness of the results is that they can be used to sharpen the targeting of differentiated policy in a given geographical area for refugee communities in rural Africa. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
难民融入其所在东道社区的经济结构往往存在问题。本文研究了南非农村地区难民相对于其所在东道社区随着时间推移积累资产的能力。采用贝叶斯时空模型分析了一个纵向数据库，该数据库表明，前莫桑比克难民家庭的资产积累率与他们所在的东道社区相似；然而，他们无法消除财富差距。一系列地理统计财富地图表明，前难民营所在村庄绝对贫困程度较高存在空间因素。主要原因是它们地处较为干旱的地区，距离设施和基础设施较远。然而，与之相邻的南非村庄绝对贫困程度较低，这表明难民的空间位置只是部分地解释了他们的不利处境。在这方面，研究结果表明，前难民家庭的财富继续因较高的死亡率、较差的教育水平以及获得高回报就业机会的机会较少而受到更大影响。在这种情况下，由于难以获得合法身份以领取国家养老金、利用设施和获得机会，低初始资产状况的长期影响似乎持续存在。这些研究结果的用处在于，它们可用于在非洲农村特定地理区域更精准地针对难民社区制定差异化政策。版权所有© 2011约翰·威利父子有限公司。
