Enquist Carolyn A F, Kellermann Jherime L, Gerst Katharine L, Miller-Rushing Abraham J
National Coordinating Office, USA National Phenology Network, 1955 East Sixth Street, Tucson, AZ, 85721, USA,
Int J Biometeorol. 2014 May;58(4):579-89. doi: 10.1007/s00484-013-0772-6. Epub 2014 Jan 4.
Natural resource professionals in the United States recognize that climate-induced changes in phenology can substantially affect resource management. This is reflected in national climate change response plans recently released by major resource agencies. However, managers on-the-ground are often unclear about how to use phenological information to inform their management practices. Until recently, this was at least partially due to the lack of broad-based, standardized phenology data collection across taxa and geographic regions. Such efforts are now underway, albeit in very early stages. Nonetheless, a major hurdle still exists: phenology-linked climate change research has focused more on describing broad ecological changes rather than making direct connections to local to regional management concerns. To help researchers better design relevant research for use in conservation and management decision-making processes, we describe phenology-related research topics that facilitate "actionable" science. Examples include research on evolution and phenotypic plasticity related to vulnerability, the demographic consequences of trophic mismatch, the role of invasive species, and building robust ecological forecast models. Such efforts will increase phenology literacy among on-the-ground resource managers and provide information relevant for short- and long-term decision-making, particularly as related to climate response planning and implementing climate-informed monitoring in the context of adaptive management. In sum, we argue that phenological information is a crucial component of the resource management toolbox that facilitates identification and evaluation of strategies that will reduce the vulnerability of natural systems to climate change. Management-savvy researchers can play an important role in reaching this goal.
美国的自然资源专业人士认识到，物候学上由气候引起的变化会对资源管理产生重大影响。这一点在主要资源机构最近发布的国家气候变化应对计划中有所体现。然而，实地管理人员往往不清楚如何利用物候信息来指导他们的管理实践。直到最近，这至少部分是由于缺乏跨分类群和地理区域的广泛、标准化的物候数据收集。尽管目前这些工作尚处于非常早期的阶段，但此类努力正在进行中。尽管如此，一个主要障碍仍然存在：与物候学相关的气候变化研究更多地集中在描述广泛的生态变化上，而不是直接联系到地方和区域的管理问题。为了帮助研究人员更好地设计用于保护和管理决策过程的相关研究，我们描述了有助于开展“可付诸行动”的科学研究的物候学相关研究主题。例如，关于与脆弱性相关的进化和表型可塑性的研究、营养不匹配的人口统计学后果、入侵物种的作用以及建立强大的生态预测模型。这些努力将提高实地资源管理人员对物候学的了解，并提供与短期和长期决策相关的信息，特别是在适应性管理背景下与气候应对规划和实施基于气候信息的监测有关的信息。总之，我们认为物候信息是资源管理工具箱的关键组成部分，有助于识别和评估能够降低自然系统对气候变化脆弱性的策略。精通管理的研究人员可以在实现这一目标方面发挥重要作用。
