气候缓解与热带景观的未来。
Climate mitigation and the future of tropical landscapes.
机构信息
Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Joint Global Change Research Institute, University of Maryland, College Park, MD 20740, USA.
出版信息
Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2010 Nov 16;107(46):19633-8. doi: 10.1073/pnas.0910467107. Epub 2010 Oct 4.
Land-use change to meet 21st-century demands for food, fuel, and fiber will depend on many interactive factors, including global policies limiting anthropogenic climate change and realized improvements in agricultural productivity. Climate-change mitigation policies will alter the decision-making environment for land management, and changes in agricultural productivity will influence cultivated land expansion. We explore to what extent future increases in agricultural productivity might offset conversion of tropical forest lands to crop lands under a climate mitigation policy and a contrasting no-policy scenario in a global integrated assessment model. The Global Change Assessment Model is applied here to simulate a mitigation policy that stabilizes radiative forcing at 4.5 W m(-2) (approximately 526 ppm CO(2)) in the year 2100 by introducing a price for all greenhouse gas emissions, including those from land use. These scenarios are simulated with several cases of future agricultural productivity growth rates and the results downscaled to produce gridded maps of potential land-use change. We find that tropical forests are preserved near their present-day extent, and bioenergy crops emerge as an effective mitigation option, only in cases in which a climate mitigation policy that includes an economic price for land-use emissions is in place, and in which agricultural productivity growth continues throughout the century. We find that idealized land-use emissions price assumptions are most effective at limiting deforestation, even when cropland area must increase to meet future food demand. These findings emphasize the importance of accounting for feedbacks from land-use change emissions in global climate change mitigation strategies.
为满足 21 世纪在粮食、燃料和纤维方面的需求而改变土地用途,将取决于许多相互作用的因素,包括限制人为气候变化的全球政策和已实现的农业生产力提高。气候变化缓解政策将改变土地管理的决策环境,而农业生产力的变化将影响耕地的扩张。我们探讨在气候变化缓解政策和相反的无政策情景下,未来农业生产力的提高在多大程度上可能抵消热带森林土地向农田的转化。全球变化评估模型在这里被应用于模拟一种缓解政策,该政策通过对所有温室气体排放(包括土地利用产生的排放)定价,将辐射强迫稳定在 2100 年的 4.5 W m(-2)(约 526 ppm CO(2))。这些情景被应用于几种未来农业生产力增长率的案例,并将结果下推到生成潜在土地利用变化的网格化地图。我们发现,只有在存在包括土地利用排放经济价格的气候缓解政策,并且农业生产力增长在整个世纪持续的情况下,热带森林才能在目前的范围附近得到保护,而生物能源作物才会成为一种有效的缓解选择。我们发现,即使为了满足未来的粮食需求必须增加耕地面积,理想化的土地利用排放价格假设在限制森林砍伐方面最为有效。这些发现强调了在全球气候变化缓解战略中考虑土地利用变化排放反馈的重要性。