Kendrovski Vladimir, Baccini Michela, Martinez Gerardo Sanchez, Wolf Tanja, Paunovic Elizabet, Menne Bettina
WHO European Centre for Environment and Health, Platz der Vereinten Nationen 1, 53113 Bonn, Germany.
Department of Statistics, Informatics, Applications, University of Florence, 50134 Florence, Italy.
Int J Environ Res Public Health. 2017 Jul 5;14(7):729. doi: 10.3390/ijerph14070729.
Under future warming conditions, high ambient temperatures will have a significant impact on population health in Europe. The aim of this paper is to quantify the possible future impact of heat on population mortality in European countries, under different climate change scenarios. We combined the heat-mortality function estimated from historical data with meteorological projections for the future time laps 2035-2064 and 2071-2099, developed under the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5. We calculated attributable deaths (AD) at the country level. Overall, the expected impacts will be much larger than the impacts we would observe if apparent temperatures would remain in the future at the observed historical levels. During the period 2071-2099, an overall excess of 46,690 and 117,333 AD per year is expected under the RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios respectively, in addition to the 16,303 AD estimated under the historical scenario. Mediterranean and Eastern European countries will be the most affected by heat, but a non-negligible impact will be still registered in North-continental countries. Policies and plans for heat mitigation and adaptation are needed and urgent in European countries in order to prevent the expected increase of heat-related deaths in the coming decades.
在未来气候变暖的情况下，高温将对欧洲的人口健康产生重大影响。本文旨在量化在不同气候变化情景下，未来高温对欧洲国家人口死亡率可能产生的影响。我们将根据历史数据估算的热死亡率函数与未来2035 - 2064年和2071 - 2099年的气象预测相结合，这些预测是在代表性浓度路径（RCP）4.5和8.5情景下得出的。我们计算了国家层面的归因死亡人数（AD）。总体而言，预期影响将远大于如果未来体感温度保持在历史观测水平时我们所观察到的影响。在2071 - 2099年期间，除了历史情景下估算的16,303例归因死亡人数外，在RCP 4.5和RCP 8.5情景下，预计每年分别总体额外增加46,690例和117,333例归因死亡人数。地中海和东欧国家将受高温影响最为严重，但北欧国家也将受到不可忽视的影响。为防止未来几十年与高温相关的死亡人数预期增加，欧洲国家迫切需要制定减轻和适应高温的政策及计划。
