Departamento de Biologia, Faculdade de Filosofia, Ciências e Letras de Ribeirão Preto, Universidade de São Paulo, Ribeirão Preto, São Paulo, Brazil.
Trans R Soc Trop Med Hyg. 2014 Feb;108(2):99-104. doi: 10.1093/trstmh/trt115.
Dengue fever is a mosquito-borne disease that affects more than 2.5 billion people worldwide. Here, we used the dataset of municipality infestation level from the Brazilian Health Ministry with the aim of building vector distribution models to identify epidemiological hotspots.
Maxent software was used to predict the environmental suitability of the vector under current and 2050 climatic conditions. We built potential risk maps for current and future epidemiological scenarios in order to provide data for vector control planning.
The results showed that the current epidemiological status is critical in the coastal region, with 80% of the population in risk areas and 30% in epidemiological outbreak areas. Our results also suggest that the area covered by the vector distribution in Brazil will decrease in future projections in the north, but will spread to the south.
The results may provide useful information for health agencies and policymakers in focusing efforts in epidemiological hotspots. Therefore, understanding the niche distribution dynamics of Aedes aegypti is an important step towards public health planning for vector control.
登革热是一种由蚊子传播的疾病，影响着全球超过 25 亿人。在这里，我们使用了巴西卫生部的蚊虫滋生水平数据集，旨在建立媒介分布模型以识别流行病学热点。
Maxent 软件用于预测当前和 2050 年气候条件下媒介的环境适宜性。我们为当前和未来的流行病学情景构建了潜在风险图，以为媒介控制规划提供数据。
结果表明，当前的流行状况在沿海地区极为严峻，80%的人口处于风险区域，30%处于流行病学爆发区域。我们的结果还表明，巴西的媒介分布面积在未来的预测中将会向北减少，但向南扩散。
这些结果可能为卫生机构和政策制定者在流行病学热点地区提供有用的信息。因此，了解埃及伊蚊的生态位分布动态是进行媒介控制公共卫生规划的重要一步。
