de Wet N, Ye W, Hales S, Warrick R, Woodward A, Weinstein P
International Global Change Institute, University of Waikato, Hamilton.
N Z Med J. 2001 Sep 28;114(1140):420-2.
To describe the areas of potential dengue fever risk in New Zealand for present climatic conditions and projected scenarios of climate change.
A computer model, the HOTSPOTS System, was developed. This allowed the integration of climatic, topographical, entomological, demographic, trade and travel data to generate spatial information describing vector introduction risk, potential vector distribution and dengue fever risk.
Under present climatic conditions, Auckland and Northland, and some coastal areas of other northern parts of the North Island, have a potential risk for dengue outbreaks supported by the vector Aedes albopictus. Greenhouse gas induced climate change could make these areas also receptive to Aedes aegypti--the more efficient tropical dengue vector--and increase the potential distribution of A. albopictus to much of the South Island.
Given the introduction of a competent vector, there is an appreciable risk of dengue fever occurring in New Zealand under present climatic conditions. Greenhouse gas induced climate change would substantially increase the magnitude and spatial extent of this risk.
描述当前气候条件下以及气候变化预测情景下新西兰登革热的潜在风险区域。
开发了一个计算机模型——热点系统（HOTSPOTS System）。该模型能够整合气候、地形、昆虫学、人口统计学、贸易和旅行数据，以生成描述病媒引入风险、潜在病媒分布和登革热风险的空间信息。
在当前气候条件下，奥克兰和北地地区以及北岛其他北部地区的一些沿海地区，存在由白纹伊蚊传播登革热疫情的潜在风险。温室气体导致的气候变化可能使这些地区也适合埃及伊蚊生存——埃及伊蚊是更高效的热带登革热传播媒介——并将白纹伊蚊的潜在分布范围扩大到南岛的大部分地区。
鉴于引入了具备传播能力的病媒，在当前气候条件下，新西兰存在登革热发生的明显风险。温室气体导致的气候变化将大幅增加这一风险的规模和空间范围。
