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通过基于假设的公民科学揭示了七叶树潜叶蛾(Cameraria ohridella)在英国的成功扩散情况。

The success of the horse-chestnut leaf-miner, Cameraria ohridella, in the UK revealed with hypothesis-led citizen science.

作者信息

Pocock Michael J O, Evans Darren M

机构信息

Centre for Ecology & Hydrology, Wallingford, Oxfordshire, United Kingdom.

School of Biological, Biomedical and Environmental Sciences, University of Hull, Hull, United Kingdom.

出版信息

PLoS One. 2014 Jan 22;9(1):e86226. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0086226. eCollection 2014.

Abstract

Citizen science is an increasingly popular way of undertaking research and simultaneously engaging people with science. However, most emphasis of citizen science in environmental science is on long-term monitoring. Here, we demonstrate the opportunities provided by short-term hypothesis-led citizen science. In 2010, we ran the 'Conker Tree Science' project, in which over 3500 people in Great Britain provided data at a national scale of an insect (horse-chestnut leaf-mining moth, Cameraria ohridella) undergoing rapid range-expansion. We addressed two hypotheses, and found that (1) the levels of damage caused to leaves of the horse-chestnut tree, Aesculus hippocastanum, and (2) the level of attack by parasitoids of C. ohridella larvae were both greatest where C. ohridella had been present the longest. Specifically there was a rapid rise in leaf damage during the first three years that C. ohridella was present and only a slight rise thereafter, while estimated rates of parasitism (an index of true rates of parasitism) increased from 1.6 to 5.9% when the time C. ohridella had been present in a location increased from 3 to 6 years. We suggest that this increase is due to recruitment of native generalist parasitoids, rather than the adaptation or host-tracking of more specialized parasitoids, as appears to have occurred elsewhere in Europe. Most data collected by participants were accurate, but the counts of parasitoids from participants showed lower concordance with the counts from experts. We statistically modeled this bias and propagated this through our analyses. Bias-corrected estimates of parasitism were lower than those from the raw data, but the trends were similar in magnitude and significance. With appropriate checks for data quality, and statistically correcting for biases where necessary, hypothesis-led citizen science is a potentially powerful tool for carrying out scientific research across large spatial scales while simultaneously engaging many people with science.

摘要

公民科学是一种越来越受欢迎的开展研究并同时让公众参与科学的方式。然而,环境科学中公民科学的大部分重点都放在长期监测上。在此,我们展示了由短期假设驱动的公民科学所带来的机遇。2010年,我们开展了“七叶树科学”项目,英国超过3500人在全国范围内提供了关于一种正在快速扩张分布范围的昆虫(七叶树潜叶蛾,Cameraria ohridella)的数据。我们探讨了两个假设,发现:(1)七叶树(Aesculus hippocastanum)叶片受到的损害程度;(2)七叶树潜叶蛾幼虫的寄生蜂的攻击水平,在七叶树潜叶蛾存在时间最长的地方都是最高的。具体而言,在七叶树潜叶蛾出现的头三年里,叶片损害迅速增加,此后仅略有上升,而当七叶树潜叶蛾在一个地点出现的时间从3年增加到6年时,估计的寄生率(寄生真实率的一个指标)从1.6%增加到了5.9%。我们认为这种增加是由于本地广食性寄生蜂的招募,而不是像在欧洲其他地方似乎发生的那样,是更专业化寄生蜂的适应或寄主追踪。参与者收集的大多数数据是准确的,但参与者对寄生蜂的计数与专家的计数一致性较低。我们对这种偏差进行了统计建模,并在分析中加以考虑。经偏差校正后的寄生率估计值低于原始数据,但趋势在幅度和显著性上相似。通过对数据质量进行适当检查,并在必要时对偏差进行统计校正,由假设驱动的公民科学是一种潜在的强大工具,可用于在大空间尺度上开展科学研究,同时让许多人参与到科学中来。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/9c21/3899221/0b2f0db66fb0/pone.0086226.g001.jpg

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