Levy Mike, Dewey Cate, Weersink Alfons, Mutua Florence, Carter Natalie, Poljak Zvonimir
Department of Population Medicine, Centre for Public Health and Zoonosis, University of Guelph, Guelph, ON, N1G2W1, Canada,
Trop Anim Health Prod. 2014 Jun;46(5):797-808. doi: 10.1007/s11250-014-0568-7. Epub 2014 Mar 15.
The purpose of this research is to assess how season, ADG, opportunity costs of farm-grown feeds, pig weight, and butcher price variation impact the economic potential of semi-intensive pig rearing. We developed a unique algorithm that emulates least-cost pig feeding and used it to assess the impact of the aforementioned factors on farmers' maximum revenue and profit potential when pigs are sold to local butchers in western Kenya. When considered as independent factors influencing feed costs to grow a pig to a market weight of 30 kg, variation in ADG, opportunity cost of feed, and weaning season resulted in feed cost differences of up to 982, 947, and 379 Kenyan shillings (KES), respectively. The variation in revenues attributable to butcher or butcher negotiation and seasonal variance of butcher prices for a 30 kg pig was 744 and 225 KES, respectively. Feed items most commonly chosen for least-cost feed rations were small dried fish, cooked ground maize, whole maize, millet, cassava foliage, sweet potato vines, bone meal, avocado, and mango. Smallholder farmers who can feed pigs to reach higher ADG, have lower opportunity costs of feeds and/or who effectively bargain with butchers can benefit from semi-intensive pig rearing. Farmers without access to at least some zero-cost feeds and farmers with opportunity costs of feeds exceeding 50 % of the market price will not earn positive returns from semi-intensive pig rearing.
本研究的目的是评估季节、平均日增重（ADG）、农场自产饲料的机会成本、猪的体重以及屠宰价格变化如何影响半集约化养猪的经济潜力。我们开发了一种独特的算法，该算法可模拟成本最低的猪饲养方式，并使用它来评估上述因素对肯尼亚西部猪只出售给当地屠夫时农民的最大收入和利润潜力的影响。当被视为将猪饲养至30千克市场体重时影响饲料成本的独立因素时，平均日增重、饲料机会成本和断奶季节的变化分别导致饲料成本差异高达982肯尼亚先令、947肯尼亚先令和379肯尼亚先令。对于一头30千克的猪，因屠夫或屠夫谈判导致的收入变化以及屠夫价格的季节性变化分别为744肯尼亚先令和225肯尼亚先令。成本最低的饲料配方中最常选用的饲料项目是小干鱼、熟玉米粉、整粒玉米、小米、木薯叶、红薯藤、骨粉、鳄梨和芒果。能够将猪饲养至更高平均日增重、饲料机会成本较低和/或能与屠夫有效议价的小农户可以从半集约化养猪中受益。无法获得至少一些零成本饲料的农户以及饲料机会成本超过市场价格50%的农户将无法从半集约化养猪中获得正回报。
