Slutske Wendy S, Deutsch Arielle R, Richmond-Rakerd Leah S, Chernyavskiy Pavel, Statham Dixie J, Martin Nicholas G
Department of Psychological Sciences.
Department of Statistics, University of Nebraska-Lincoln.
Psychol Addict Behav. 2014 Dec;28(4):1177-89. doi: 10.1037/a0035356. Epub 2014 Mar 17.
The premise that an association between an earlier age of gambling initiation and the later development of disordered gambling is causal has not yet been empirically examined. The current study used a multilevel discordant twin design to examine the nature of this association. Participants were 3,546 same-sex twins (mean age = 37.7 years) from the Australian Twin Registry who completed a telephone interview that included an extensive assessment of gambling and related behaviors. Multilevel models were employed to estimate individual (within-twin-pair comparison) and family level (between-twin-pair comparison) effects, as well as the cross-level interaction between these effects. Family-level effects (genetic or environmental factors shared by family members) of age of gambling initiation robustly predicted later adult gambling frequency and disorder; the evidence for individual-level effects (unique factors not shared by family members, including a potentially causal effect of earlier age of gambling onset) was less robust. The results of this study suggest that the relation between earlier age of gambling initiation and later gambling involvement and disorder is primarily noncausal; efforts to delay the onset of gambling among young people may not necessarily reduce the number who later go on to develop gambling-related problems.
赌博起始年龄较早与后来出现问题性赌博之间存在因果关系这一前提尚未得到实证检验。当前研究采用多层次不一致双胞胎设计来检验这种关联的性质。参与者是来自澳大利亚双胞胎登记处的3546对同性双胞胎（平均年龄 = 37.7岁），他们完成了一次电话访谈，其中包括对赌博及相关行为的广泛评估。采用多层次模型来估计个体（双胞胎对内部比较）和家庭层面（双胞胎对之间比较）的影响，以及这些影响之间的跨层次交互作用。赌博起始年龄的家庭层面影响（家庭成员共享的遗传或环境因素）有力地预测了后来成年人的赌博频率和问题；个体层面影响（家庭成员未共享的独特因素，包括赌博起始年龄较早可能产生的因果效应）的证据则不那么有力。这项研究的结果表明，赌博起始年龄较早与后来的赌博参与及问题之间的关系主要不是因果关系；在年轻人中延迟赌博起始年龄的努力不一定会减少后来出现与赌博相关问题的人数。
