Department of Entomology and Nematology, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL, 32611, U.S.A.
Biol Rev Camb Philos Soc. 2015 Feb;90(1):214-35. doi: 10.1111/brv.12105. Epub 2014 Apr 10.
Winter is a key driver of individual performance, community composition, and ecological interactions in terrestrial habitats. Although climate change research tends to focus on performance in the growing season, climate change is also modifying winter conditions rapidly. Changes to winter temperatures, the variability of winter conditions, and winter snow cover can interact to induce cold injury, alter energy and water balance, advance or retard phenology, and modify community interactions. Species vary in their susceptibility to these winter drivers, hampering efforts to predict biological responses to climate change. Existing frameworks for predicting the impacts of climate change do not incorporate the complexity of organismal responses to winter. Here, we synthesise organismal responses to winter climate change, and use this synthesis to build a framework to predict exposure and sensitivity to negative impacts. This framework can be used to estimate the vulnerability of species to winter climate change. We describe the importance of relationships between winter conditions and performance during the growing season in determining fitness, and demonstrate how summer and winter processes are linked. Incorporating winter into current models will require concerted effort from theoreticians and empiricists, and the expansion of current growing-season studies to incorporate winter.
冬季是陆地生境中个体表现、群落组成和生态相互作用的关键驱动因素。尽管气候变化研究往往侧重于生长季节的表现，但气候变化也在迅速改变冬季条件。冬季温度的变化、冬季条件的可变性以及冬季积雪的覆盖可以相互作用，导致冷害，改变能量和水分平衡，提前或延迟物候期，并改变群落相互作用。物种对这些冬季驱动因素的敏感性不同，这使得预测生物对气候变化的反应变得困难。现有的预测气候变化影响的框架没有纳入生物体对冬季的复杂反应。在这里，我们综合了生物体对冬季气候变化的反应，并利用这一综合信息构建了一个预测暴露和对负面影响敏感性的框架。该框架可用于估计物种对冬季气候变化的脆弱性。我们描述了冬季条件与生长季节表现之间的关系在决定适应性方面的重要性，并展示了夏季和冬季过程是如何联系在一起的。将冬季纳入现有模型需要理论家和经验主义者的共同努力，以及扩大当前生长季节研究以纳入冬季。
