Creswell Jacob, Sahu Suvanand, Blok Lucie, Bakker Mirjam I, Stevens Robert, Ditiu Lucica
Stop TB Partnership, Geneva, Switzerland.
Royal Tropical Institute (KIT), Health, Amsterdam, The Netherlands.
PLoS One. 2014 Apr 10;9(4):e94465. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0094465. eCollection 2014.
Globally, TB notifications have stagnated since 2007, and sputum smear positive notifications have been declining despite policies to improve case detection. We evaluate results of 28 interventions focused on improving TB case detection.
We measured additional sputum smear positive cases treated, defined as the intervention area's increase in case notification during the project compared to the previous year. Projects were encouraged to select control areas and collect historical notification data. We used time series negative binomial regression for over-dispersed cross-sectional data accounting for fixed and random effects to test the individual projects' effects on TB notification while controlling for trend and control populations.
Twenty-eight projects, 19 with control populations, completed at least four quarters of case finding activities, covering a population of 89.2 million. Among all projects sputum smear positive (SS+) TB notifications increased 24.9% and annualized notification rates increased from 69.1 to 86.2/100,000 (p = 0.0209) during interventions. Among the 19 projects with control populations, SS+TB case notifications increased 36.9% increase while in the control populations a 3.6% decrease was observed. Fourteen (74%) of the 19 projects' SS+TB notification rates in intervention areas increased from the baseline to intervention period when controlling for historical trends and notifications in control areas.
Interventions were associated with large increases in TB notifications across many settings, using an array of interventions. Many people with TB are not reached using current approaches. Different methods and interventions tailored to local realities are urgently needed.
全球范围内,自2007年以来结核病通报数量停滞不前,尽管采取了提高病例发现率的政策,但痰涂片阳性病例通报数量却一直在下降。我们评估了28项旨在提高结核病病例发现率的干预措施的效果。
我们衡量了额外治疗的痰涂片阳性病例数,定义为项目期间干预地区与上一年相比病例通报数量的增加。鼓励各项目选择对照地区并收集历史通报数据。我们使用时间序列负二项回归分析过度分散的横断面数据,同时考虑固定效应和随机效应,以检验各个项目对结核病通报的影响,同时控制趋势和对照人群。
28个项目(其中19个有对照人群)完成了至少四个季度的病例发现活动,覆盖人口达8920万。在所有项目中,干预期间痰涂片阳性(SS+)结核病通报数量增加了24.9%,年化通报率从69.1/10万增至86.2/10万(p = 0.0209)。在19个有对照人群的项目中,SS+结核病病例通报数量增加了36.9%,而对照人群中则下降了3.6%。在控制历史趋势和对照地区通报情况后,19个项目中有14个(74%)干预地区的SS+结核病通报率从基线期到干预期有所上升。
通过一系列干预措施,干预措施在许多情况下都与结核病通报数量的大幅增加相关。目前的方法未能覆盖许多结核病患者。迫切需要根据当地实际情况采用不同的方法和干预措施。