Clinical and Molecular Osteoporosis Research Unit, Departments of Clinical Sciences and Orthopedics , Malmö University Hospital, Lund University , Sweden .
Acta Orthop. 2014 Jun;85(3):234-7. doi: 10.3109/17453674.2014.916491. Epub 2014 Apr 30.
The incidence and annual number of hip fractures have increased worldwide during the past 50 years, and projections have indicated a further increase. During the last decade, however, a down-turn in the incidence of hip fracture has been seen in the western world. We predicted the development of hip fractures in Sweden until the year 2050.
We reviewed surgical records for the period 2002-2012 in the city of Malmö, Sweden, and identified patients aged 50 years or more with a hip fracture. We estimated incidence rates by using official population figures as denominator and applied the rates to population projections each year until 2050. We also made projections based on our previously published nationwide Swedish hip fracture rates for the period 1987-2002. Since the projections are based on estimates, no confidence limits are given.
During the period 2002-2012, there were 7,385 hip fractures in Malmö. Based on these data, we predicted that there would be approximately 30,000 hip fractures in Sweden in the year 2050. Use of nationwide rates for 2002 in the predictive model gave similar results, which correspond to an increase in the number of hip fractures by a factor of 1.9 (1.7 for women and 2.3 for men) compared to 2002.
The annual number of hip fractures will almost double during the first half of the century. Time trends in hip fractures and also changes in population size and age distribution should be continuously monitored, as such changes will influence the number of hip fractures in the future. Our results indicate that we must optimize preventive measures for hip fractures and prepare for major demands in resources.
在过去的 50 年中，全球范围内髋部骨折的发病率和年发病人数都有所增加，预计还会进一步增加。然而，在过去的十年中，西方世界髋部骨折的发病率已经出现下降趋势。我们预测了瑞典髋部骨折的发展情况，直至 2050 年。
我们查阅了瑞典马尔默市 2002 年至 2012 年的手术记录，并确定了年龄在 50 岁及以上的髋部骨折患者。我们使用官方人口数据作为分母计算发病率，并将这些数据应用于每年的人口预测，直至 2050 年。我们还根据我们之前发表的 1987 年至 2002 年期间全国范围内瑞典髋部骨折发病率进行了预测。由于预测是基于估计值，因此没有置信区间。
在 2002 年至 2012 年期间，马尔默市共有 7385 例髋部骨折。基于这些数据，我们预测到 2050 年瑞典髋部骨折的人数将达到约 3 万人。在预测模型中使用 2002 年全国范围内的发病率数据得到了类似的结果，这与 2002 年相比，髋部骨折的数量增加了 1.9 倍（女性增加 1.7 倍，男性增加 2.3 倍）。
在本世纪的前半叶，每年髋部骨折的人数将几乎翻一番。髋部骨折的时间趋势以及人口规模和年龄分布的变化应持续监测，因为这些变化将影响未来髋部骨折的数量。我们的结果表明，我们必须优化髋部骨折的预防措施，并为资源的大量需求做好准备。
