Massad Eduardo, Wilder-Smith Annelies, Ximenes Raphael, Amaku Marcos, Lopez Luis Fernandez, Coutinho Francisco Antonio Bezerra, Coelho Giovanini Evelim, Silva Jarbas Barbosa da, Struchiner Claudio José, Burattini Marcelo Nascimento
LIM01, Hospital de Clínicas, Faculdade de Medicina, Universidade de São Paulo, São Paulo, SP, Brazil.
Lee Kong Chian School of Medicine, Nanyang University, Singapore.
Mem Inst Oswaldo Cruz. 2014 Jun;109(3):394-7. doi: 10.1590/0074-0276140133. Epub 2014 May 20.
Brazil will host the FIFA World Cup™, the biggest single-event competition in the world, from June 12-July 13 2014 in 12 cities. This event will draw an estimated 600,000 international visitors. Brazil is endemic for dengue. Hence, attendees of the 2014 event are theoretically at risk for dengue. We calculated the risk of dengue acquisition to non-immune international travellers to Brazil, depending on the football match schedules, considering locations and dates of such matches for June and July 2014. We estimated the average per-capita risk and expected number of dengue cases for each host-city and each game schedule chosen based on reported dengue cases to the Brazilian Ministry of Health for the period between 2010-2013. On the average, the expected number of cases among the 600,000 foreigner tourists during the World Cup is 33, varying from 3-59. Such risk estimates will not only benefit individual travellers for adequate pre-travel preparations, but also provide valuable information for public health professionals and policy makers worldwide. Furthermore, estimates of dengue cases in international travellers during the World Cup can help to anticipate the theoretical risk for exportation of dengue into currently non-infected areas.
巴西将于2014年6月12日至7月13日在12个城市举办国际足联世界杯™，这是世界上规模最大的单项赛事。预计该赛事将吸引60万国际游客。巴西是登革热的地方性流行区。因此，2014年赛事的参与者理论上有感染登革热的风险。我们根据足球比赛日程，考虑2014年6月和7月比赛的地点和日期，计算了非免疫的前往巴西的国际旅行者感染登革热的风险。我们根据2010 - 2013年期间向巴西卫生部报告的登革热病例，估计了每个主办城市以及每个选定比赛日程的人均平均风险和登革热病例预期数量。平均而言，世界杯期间60万外国游客中的病例预期数量为33例，范围在3 - 59例之间。这样的风险估计不仅将有助于个人旅行者进行充分的旅行前准备，还将为全球公共卫生专业人员和政策制定者提供有价值的信息。此外，对世界杯期间国际旅行者中登革热病例的估计有助于预测登革热传入目前未感染地区的理论风险。
