Xiao Jianpeng, Peng Ji, Zhang Yonghui, Liu Tao, Rutherford Shannon, Lin Hualiang, Qian Zhengmin, Huang Cunrui, Luo Yuan, Zeng Weilin, Chu Cordia, Ma Wenjun
Guangdong Provincial Institute of Public Health, Guangdong Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, 160#, Qunxian Road, Panyu District, Guangzhou, 511430, China.
Int J Biometeorol. 2015 Mar;59(3):365-72. doi: 10.1007/s00484-014-0848-y. Epub 2014 Jun 1.
Although several studies have documented that latitude might be an effect modifier of the association between temperature and mortality, little is known about how much latitude modifies the temperature-mortality relationship. In this study, we examined this research question using a distributed lag non-linear model and meta-regression analysis based on data from 13 large cities of eastern US from the US National Morbidity, Mortality, and Air Pollution Study. We found that cold effects lasted about 1 month while hot effects were acute and short-term. Meta-regression analysis showed that latitude modified both the cold and hot effects with statistical significance. The cold effect decreased with the latitude increment, with -0.11 % change of mortality effect for 1° increment, while the hot effect increased with the latitude increment, with 0.18 % change of mortality effect for 1° increment. This finding indicates the importance of latitude on temperature-related mortality risk, which is helpful for city to develop localized effective adaptation strategy in the context of climate change.
尽管多项研究已证明纬度可能是温度与死亡率之间关联的效应修饰因素，但对于纬度对温度-死亡率关系的修饰程度知之甚少。在本研究中，我们基于美国国家发病率、死亡率和空气污染研究中美国东部13个大城市的数据，使用分布滞后非线性模型和元回归分析来研究这个问题。我们发现寒冷效应持续约1个月，而炎热效应是急性且短期的。元回归分析表明，纬度对寒冷和炎热效应均有统计学意义的修饰作用。寒冷效应随纬度增加而降低，纬度每增加1°，死亡率效应变化-0.11%，而炎热效应随纬度增加而增加，纬度每增加1°，死亡率效应变化0.18%。这一发现表明了纬度对与温度相关的死亡风险的重要性，这有助于城市在气候变化背景下制定本地化的有效适应策略。
