埃塞俄比亚一项改进道路安全政策的成效：一项中断时间序列研究。
Effectiveness of an improved road safety policy in Ethiopia: an interrupted time series study.
作者信息
Abegaz Teferi, Berhane Yemane, Worku Alemayehu, Assrat Abebe
机构信息
School of Public and Environmental Health, College of Medicine and Health Sciences, Hawassa University, Hawassa, Ethiopia.
出版信息
BMC Public Health. 2014 May 31;14:539. doi: 10.1186/1471-2458-14-539.
BACKGROUND
In recent years, there has been an increasing interest in implementing road safety policy by different low income countries. However; the evidence is scarce on its success in the reduction of crashes, injuries and deaths. This study was conducted to assess whether road crashes, injuries and fatalities was reduced following the road safety regulation introduced as of September 2007 by Oromia Regional State Transport Bureau.
METHODS
Routine road traffic accident data for the year 2002-2011were collected from sixteen traffic police offices. Data on average daily vehicle flow was obtained from the Ethiopian Road Authority. Interrupted time series design using segmented linear regression model was applied to estimate the effect of an improved road safety policy.
RESULTS
A total of 4,053 crashes occurred on Addis Ababa - Adama/Hawassa main road. Of these crashes, almost half 46.4% (1,880) were property damage, 29.4% (1,193) were fatal and 24.2% (980) injury crashes, resulting 1,392 fatalities and 1,749 injuries. There were statistically significant reductions in non-injury crashes and deaths. Non-injury crash was reduced by 19% and fatality by 12.4% in the first year of implementing the revised transport safety regulation.
CONCLUSION
Although revised road safety policy helped in reducing motor vehicle crashes and associated fatalities, the overall incidence rate is still very high. Further action is required to avoid unnecessary loss of lives.
背景
近年来，不同低收入国家对实施道路安全政策的兴趣日益浓厚。然而，关于其在减少撞车、受伤和死亡方面取得成功的证据却很少。本研究旨在评估奥罗米亚州区域运输局自2007年9月实施道路安全法规后，道路撞车、受伤和死亡情况是否有所减少。
方法
收集了2002年至2011年期间16个交警办公室的常规道路交通事故数据。日均车辆流量数据来自埃塞俄比亚公路管理局。采用分段线性回归模型的中断时间序列设计来估计改进后的道路安全政策的效果。
结果
亚的斯亚贝巴-阿达马/哈瓦萨主干道共发生4053起撞车事故。其中，近一半（46.4%，1880起）为财产损失事故，29.4%（1193起）为致命事故，24.2%（980起）为受伤事故，造成1392人死亡和1749人受伤。未受伤事故和死亡人数有统计学意义的减少。在实施修订后的运输安全法规的第一年，未受伤事故减少了19%，死亡人数减少了12.4%。
结论
尽管修订后的道路安全政策有助于减少机动车撞车事故及相关死亡人数，但总体发生率仍然很高。需要采取进一步行动以避免不必要的生命损失。
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