Aono Yasuyuki
Graduate School of Life and Environmental Sciences, Osaka Prefecture University, Gakuen-cho 1-1, Naka-ku, Sakai, Osaka, 599-8531, Japan,
Int J Biometeorol. 2015 Apr;59(4):427-34. doi: 10.1007/s00484-014-0854-0. Epub 2014 Jun 5.
The changes in March mean temperatures in Edo (Tokyo), Japan, since the seventeenth century, were reconstructed using phenological data for the cherry blossoms of Prunus jamasakura deduced from old diaries and chronicles. The observations of the time of full blossoming and of cherry blossom viewing parties were acquired and used to construct a full-blossoming phenological data series for P. jamasakura. Phenological data from 207 of the years from 1601 to 1905 were used for this study. The reconstructed temperatures suggested the existence of two cold periods (the second half of the seventeenth century and the beginning of the nineteenth century), during which times the estimated March mean temperatures were about 4 °C and 5 °C, respectively. These two cold periods at Edo coincided with those reconstructed at Kyoto in previous studies. These cold periods coincided with two less extreme periods, the Maunder and Dalton minima, in the long-term solar variation cycle.
利用从旧日记和编年史中推断出的日本山樱的物候数据，重建了自17世纪以来日本江户（东京）3月平均气温的变化情况。获取了樱花盛开时间和赏樱会的观测数据，并用于构建日本山樱的盛开物候数据序列。本研究使用了1601年至1905年期间207年的物候数据。重建的温度表明存在两个寒冷期（17世纪后半叶和19世纪初），在此期间，估计的3月平均气温分别约为4℃和5℃。江户的这两个寒冷期与之前研究中在京都重建的寒冷期一致。这些寒冷期与长期太阳变化周期中两个不太极端的时期——蒙德极小期和道尔顿极小期相吻合。
