Rogers A, Rogers R G, Branch L G
Population Program, Institute of Behavioral Science, University of Colorado, Boulder 80309.
Public Health Rep. 1989 May-Jun;104(3):222-6.
With today's lower mortality rates, longer expectations of life, and new medical technologies, the nation's health policy focus has shifted from emphasis on individual survival to emphasis on personal health and independent living. Using longitudinal data sets and new methodological techniques, researchers have begun to assess active life expectancies, estimating not only how long a subpopulation can expect to live beyond each age, but what fractions of the expected remaining lifetime will be lived as independent, dependent, or institutionalized. New ideas are addressed, applying recently developed multistate life table methods to Waves One and Two of the Massachusetts Health Care Panel Study. Expectations of active life are presented for those 65 and older who initially are in one of two functional states of well-being. Included are expectations of life, for those, for example, who were independent and remained so, or those who were dependent and became independent. Although public health officials are concerned about the number of elderly who cease being independent, preliminary analysis shows that a significant number of the dependent elderly regain their independence, a situation which needs to be addressed in health care planning.
随着如今死亡率降低、预期寿命延长以及新医疗技术的出现，国家卫生政策重点已从强调个体生存转向强调个人健康和独立生活。利用纵向数据集和新的方法技术，研究人员已开始评估健康预期寿命，不仅估计特定人群在每个年龄之后还能存活多久，而且估计预期剩余寿命中作为独立、依赖或机构化生活的比例。本文提出了新思路，将最近开发的多状态生命表方法应用于马萨诸塞州医疗保健小组研究的第一波和第二波数据。针对最初处于两种健康功能状态之一的65岁及以上人群，给出了健康预期寿命。其中包括例如那些一直保持独立的人以及那些从依赖状态转变为独立状态的人的预期寿命。尽管公共卫生官员担心失去独立生活能力的老年人数量，但初步分析表明，相当一部分依赖他人的老年人重新获得了独立，这种情况在医疗保健规划中需要加以考虑。
