Brady Oliver J, Godfray H Charles J, Tatem Andrew J, Gething Peter W, Cohen Justin M, McKenzie F Ellis, Alex Perkins T, Reiner Robert C, Tusting Lucy S, Scott Thomas W, Lindsay Steven W, Hay Simon I, Smith David L
Spatial Ecology and Epidemiology Group, Department of Zoology, Oxford University, Oxford, UK
Department of Zoology, University of Oxford, UK.
Int Health. 2015 Mar;7(2):121-9. doi: 10.1093/inthealth/ihv010.
Standard advice regarding vector control is to prefer interventions that reduce the lifespan of adult mosquitoes. The basis for this advice is a decades-old sensitivity analysis of 'vectorial capacity', a concept relevant for most malaria transmission models and based solely on adult mosquito population dynamics. Recent advances in micro-simulation models offer an opportunity to expand the theory of vectorial capacity to include both adult and juvenile mosquito stages in the model.
In this study we revisit arguments about transmission and its sensitivity to mosquito bionomic parameters using an elasticity analysis of developed formulations of vectorial capacity.
We show that reducing adult survival has effects on both adult and juvenile population size, which are significant for transmission and not accounted for in traditional formulations of vectorial capacity. The elasticity of these effects is dependent on various mosquito population parameters, which we explore. Overall, control is most sensitive to methods that affect adult mosquito mortality rates, followed by blood feeding frequency, human blood feeding habit, and lastly, to adult mosquito population density.
These results emphasise more strongly than ever the sensitivity of transmission to adult mosquito mortality, but also suggest the high potential of combinations of interventions including larval source management. This must be done with caution, however, as policy requires a more careful consideration of costs, operational difficulties and policy goals in relation to baseline transmission.
关于病媒控制的标准建议是优先选择能缩短成年蚊子寿命的干预措施。这一建议的依据是对“媒介能量”进行的一项数十年前的敏感性分析，“媒介能量”是一个与大多数疟疾传播模型相关的概念，且仅基于成年蚊子的种群动态。微观模拟模型的最新进展提供了一个机会，可将媒介能量理论扩展至在模型中纳入成年和幼年蚊子阶段。
在本研究中，我们通过对已开发的媒介能量公式进行弹性分析，重新审视关于传播及其对蚊子生物学参数敏感性的观点。
我们表明，降低成年蚊子的存活率会对成年和幼年蚊子的种群数量产生影响，这对传播具有重要意义，而在传统的媒介能量公式中并未考虑到这一点。这些影响的弹性取决于各种蚊子种群参数，我们对此进行了探究。总体而言，控制措施对影响成年蚊子死亡率的方法最为敏感，其次是吸血频率、吸食人血的习性，最后是成年蚊子的种群密度。
这些结果比以往任何时候都更强烈地强调了传播对成年蚊子死亡率的敏感性，但也表明包括幼虫源管理在内的干预措施组合具有很大潜力。然而，必须谨慎行事，因为政策需要更仔细地考虑成本、操作困难以及与基线传播相关的政策目标。
