Intellectual Ventures Laboratory, 1600 132nd Ave NE, Bellevue, WA 98004, USA.
Malar J. 2011 Oct 17;10:303. doi: 10.1186/1475-2875-10-303.
Malaria is a major public health issue in much of the world, and the mosquito vectors which drive transmission are key targets for interventions. Mathematical models for planning malaria eradication benefit from detailed representations of local mosquito populations, their natural dynamics and their response to campaign pressures.
A new model is presented for mosquito population dynamics, effects of weather, and impacts of multiple simultaneous interventions. This model is then embedded in a large-scale individual-based simulation and results for local elimination of malaria are discussed. Mosquito population behaviours, such as anthropophily and indoor feeding, are included to study their effect upon the efficacy of vector control-based elimination campaigns.
Results for vector control tools, such as bed nets, indoor spraying, larval control and space spraying, both alone and in combination, are displayed for a single-location simulation with vector species and seasonality characteristic of central Tanzania, varying baseline transmission intensity and vector bionomics. The sensitivities to habitat type, anthropophily, indoor feeding, and baseline transmission intensity are explored.
The ability to model a spectrum of local vector species with different ecologies and behaviours allows local customization of packages of interventions and exploration of the effect of proposed new tools.
疟疾是世界上许多地区的主要公共卫生问题，驱动传播的蚊子媒介是干预措施的关键目标。规划疟疾消除的数学模型受益于对当地蚊子种群、其自然动态及其对运动压力的反应的详细描述。
提出了一种新的蚊子种群动态模型，以及天气的影响和多种同时干预措施的影响。然后，该模型被嵌入一个大规模的基于个体的模拟中，并讨论了当地消除疟疾的结果。包括蚊子种群的行为，如嗜人血和室内喂养，以研究它们对基于控制媒介的消除运动的效果的影响。
展示了单独和组合使用的几种控制工具（如蚊帐、室内喷雾、幼虫控制和空间喷雾）的结果，这些结果针对坦桑尼亚中部具有代表性的蚊子物种和季节性、不同的基线传播强度和媒介生物学特征的单个地点进行模拟。探讨了对栖息地类型、嗜人血、室内喂养和基线传播强度的敏感性。
能够对具有不同生态和行为的一系列本地媒介物种进行建模，允许对干预包进行本地化定制，并探索新工具的建议的效果。
