基于数学模型的破伤风预防成本效益分析
Cost-benefit analysis of tetanus prophylaxis by a mathematical model.
作者信息
Carducci A, Avio C M, Bendinelli M
机构信息
Department of Experimental, Infective and Public Biomedicine, Section of Hygiene and Epidemiology, University of Pisa, Italy.
出版信息
Epidemiol Infect. 1989 Jun;102(3):473-83. doi: 10.1017/s0950268800030193.
A mathematical model has been developed which allows estimation of the epidemiological and economic effects of different tetanus vaccination strategies. The model was used to simulate the epidemiology of tetanus in Italy from 1955 to 1982, and then applied to a district of Tuscany by utilizing data obtained from a seroepidemiological survey carried out in the same area. For this district we simulated vaccination programmes designed to reach, within 1 or 10 years, coverages of 60 or 90% of the population aged over 10 years who had not been exposed to the neonatal vaccination programme. The most effective strategy, from both the epidemiological and economic point of view, seems to be 90% coverage reached in 1 year's time. Benefits would be increased by improving the reliability of vaccinal anamnesis.
已开发出一种数学模型，可用于估计不同破伤风疫苗接种策略的流行病学和经济影响。该模型用于模拟1955年至1982年意大利破伤风的流行病学情况，然后利用在同一地区进行的血清流行病学调查所获得的数据，将其应用于托斯卡纳的一个地区。对于该地区，我们模拟了旨在在1年或10年内使未接种新生儿疫苗接种计划的10岁以上人群覆盖率达到60%或90%的疫苗接种计划。从流行病学和经济角度来看，最有效的策略似乎是在1年内达到90%的覆盖率。提高疫苗接种记忆的可靠性将增加益处。
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