Ambrosini Roberto, Borgoni Riccardo, Rubolini Diego, Sicurella Beatrice, Fiedler Wolfgang, Bairlein Franz, Baillie Stephen R, Robinson Robert A, Clark Jacquie A, Spina Fernando, Saino Nicola
Dipartimento di Biotecnologie e Bioscienze, Università degli Studi di Milano-Bicocca, Milano, Italy.
Dipartimento di Economia, Metodi quantitativi e Strategie di Impresa, Università degli Studi di Milano-Bicocca, Milano, Italy.
PLoS One. 2014 Jul 21;9(7):e102440. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0102440. eCollection 2014.
Migration is a fundamental stage in the life history of several taxa, including birds, and is under strong selective pressure. At present, the only data that may allow for both an assessment of patterns of bird migration and for retrospective analyses of changes in migration timing are the databases of ring recoveries. We used ring recoveries of the Barn Swallow Hirundo rustica collected from 1908-2008 in Europe to model the calendar date at which a given proportion of birds is expected to have reached a given geographical area ('progression of migration') and to investigate the change in timing of migration over the same areas between three time periods (1908-1969, 1970-1990, 1991-2008). The analyses were conducted using binomial conditional autoregressive (CAR) mixed models. We first concentrated on data from the British Isles and then expanded the models to western Europe and north Africa. We produced maps of the progression of migration that disclosed local patterns of migration consistent with those obtained from the analyses of the movements of ringed individuals. Timing of migration estimated from our model is consistent with data on migration phenology of the Barn Swallow available in the literature, but in some cases it is later than that estimated by data collected at ringing stations, which, however, may not be representative of migration phenology over large geographical areas. The comparison of median migration date estimated over the same geographical area among time periods showed no significant advancement of spring migration over the whole of Europe, but a significant advancement of autumn migration in southern Europe. Our modelling approach can be generalized to any records of ringing date and locality of individuals including those which have not been recovered subsequently, as well as to geo-referenced databases of sightings of migratory individuals.
迁徙是包括鸟类在内的多个分类群生命史中的一个基本阶段，并且受到强烈的选择压力。目前，唯一能够同时评估鸟类迁徙模式并对迁徙时间变化进行回顾性分析的数据是环志回收数据库。我们利用1908年至2008年在欧洲收集的家燕（Hirundo rustica）环志回收数据，来模拟预计一定比例的鸟类到达特定地理区域的日历日期（“迁徙进程”），并研究在三个时间段（1908年至1969年、1970年至1990年、1991年至2008年）同一区域内迁徙时间的变化。分析使用二项式条件自回归（CAR）混合模型进行。我们首先关注来自不列颠群岛的数据，然后将模型扩展到西欧和北非。我们制作了迁徙进程图，揭示了与通过对环志个体移动分析获得的结果一致的局部迁徙模式。根据我们的模型估计的迁徙时间与文献中家燕迁徙物候学数据一致，但在某些情况下比在环志站收集的数据估计的时间要晚，不过环志站的数据可能并不代表大地理区域的迁徙物候学情况。不同时间段在同一地理区域估计的迁徙日期中位数比较显示，整个欧洲春季迁徙没有显著提前，但南欧秋季迁徙有显著提前。我们的建模方法可以推广到任何个体环志日期和地点的记录，包括那些随后未被回收的记录，以及迁徙个体目击的地理参考数据库。
