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源于经验的决策:群体与个体如何适应变化。

Decisions from experience: how groups and individuals adapt to change.

作者信息

Lejarraga Tomás, Lejarraga José, Gonzalez Cleotilde

机构信息

Center for Adaptive Rationality, Max Planck Institute for Human Development, Lentzeallee 94, 14195, Berlin, Germany,

出版信息

Mem Cognit. 2014 Nov;42(8):1384-97. doi: 10.3758/s13421-014-0445-7.

Abstract

Whether groups make better judgments and decisions than individuals has been studied extensively, but most of this research has focused on static tasks. How do groups and individuals compare in settings where the decision environment changes unexpectedly and without notification? This article examines group and individual behavior in decisions from experience where the underlying probabilities change after some trials. Consistent with the previous literature, the results showed that groups performed better than the average individual while the decision task was stable. However, group performance was no longer superior after a change in the decision environment. Group performance was closer to the benchmark of Bayesian updating, which assumed perfect memory. Findings suggest that groups did not adopt decision routines that might have delayed their adaption to change in the environment. Rather, they seem to have coordinated their responses, which led them to behave as if they had better memory and subsequently delayed adaptation.

摘要

群体是否比个体做出更好的判断和决策已得到广泛研究,但大部分此类研究都集中在静态任务上。在决策环境意外且无通知地发生变化的情况下,群体和个体的表现如何比较?本文考察了在经验性决策中群体和个体的行为,其中一些试验后潜在概率会发生变化。与先前的文献一致,结果表明在决策任务稳定时,群体的表现优于个体平均水平。然而,决策环境变化后,群体表现不再出众。群体表现更接近贝叶斯更新的基准,该基准假设具有完美记忆。研究结果表明,群体没有采用可能延迟其适应环境变化的决策程序。相反,他们似乎协调了自己的反应,这导致他们的行为就好像他们有更好的记忆,从而延迟了适应。

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