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动态风险环境中的选择适应模式。

Patterns of choice adaptation in dynamic risky environments.

机构信息

Department of Psychology, University of Warwick, Coventry, UK.

Department of Psychology, Louisiana State University, Baton Rouge, LA, USA.

出版信息

Mem Cognit. 2022 May;50(4):864-881. doi: 10.3758/s13421-021-01244-4. Epub 2022 Mar 8.

DOI:10.3758/s13421-021-01244-4
PMID:35258779
原文链接:https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC9018651/
Abstract

An important aspect of making good decisions is the ability to adapt to changes in the values of available choice options, and research suggests that we are poor at changing behavior and adapting our choices successfully. The current paper contributes to clarifying the role of memory on learning and successful adaptation to changing decision environments. We test two aspects of changing decision environments: the direction of change and the type of feedback. The direction of change refers to how options become more or less rewarding compared to other options, over time. Feedback refers to whether full or partial information about decision outcomes is received. Results from behavioral experiments revealed a robust effect of the direction of change: risk that becomes more rewarding over time is harder to detect than risk that becomes less rewarding over time; even with full feedback. We rely on three distinct computational models to interpret the role of memory on learning and adaptation. The distributions of individual model parameters were analyzed in relation to participants' ability to successfully adapt to the changing conditions of the various decision environments. Consistent across the three models and two distinct data sets, results revealed the importance of recency as an individual memory component for choice adaptation. Individuals relying more on recent experiences were more successful at adapting to change, regardless of its direction. We explain the value and limitations of these findings as well as opportunities for future research.

摘要

做出明智决策的一个重要方面是能够适应可供选择的选项的价值变化,而研究表明,我们在改变行为和成功适应变化的决策环境方面做得很差。本文旨在阐明记忆在学习和成功适应变化的决策环境中的作用。我们测试了变化的决策环境的两个方面:变化的方向和反馈的类型。变化的方向是指随着时间的推移,与其他选项相比,选项变得更有价值或更没有价值。反馈是指是否收到关于决策结果的全部或部分信息。行为实验的结果显示出变化方向的强大影响:随着时间的推移变得更有价值的风险比随着时间的推移变得没有价值的风险更难被发现;即使有全部反馈也是如此。我们依赖三个不同的计算模型来解释记忆在学习和适应中的作用。分析了个体模型参数的分布与参与者成功适应各种决策环境的变化条件的能力之间的关系。在三个模型和两个不同数据集之间,结果一致表明,作为选择适应的个体记忆成分,最近的经验的重要性。更依赖于最近经验的个体在适应变化方面更为成功,而不论其方向如何。我们解释了这些发现的价值和局限性,以及未来研究的机会。

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Psychol Rev. 2021 Oct;128(5):995-1005. doi: 10.1037/rev0000274.
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Persistence is futile: Chasing of past performance in repeated investment choices.
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Eur J Neurosci. 2024 May;59(9):2155-2180. doi: 10.1111/ejn.15999. Epub 2023 May 10.
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J Exp Psychol Appl. 2022 Jun;28(2):341-359. doi: 10.1037/xap0000358. Epub 2021 May 17.
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