Department of Economics and Courant Research Centre "Poverty, Equity and Growth in Developing Countries", University of Göttingen, Göttingen, Germany; Harvard Center for Population and Development Studies, Harvard School of Public Health, Cambridge, MA, USA.
NADEL, ETH Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland.
Lancet Glob Health. 2014 Apr;2(4):e225-34. doi: 10.1016/S2214-109X(14)70025-7. Epub 2014 Mar 27.
BACKGROUND: Economic growth is widely regarded as a necessary, and often sufficient, condition for the improvement of population health. We aimed to assess whether macroeconomic growth was associated with reductions in early childhood undernutrition in low-income and middle-income countries. METHODS: We analysed data from 121 Demographic and Health Surveys from 36 countries done between Jan 1, 1990, and Dec 31, 2011. The sample consisted of nationally representative cross-sectional surveys of children aged 0-35 months, and the outcome variables were stunting, underweight, and wasting. The main independent variable was per-head gross domestic product (GDP) in constant prices and adjusted for purchasing power parity. We used logistic regression models to estimate the association between changes in per-head GDP and changes in child undernutrition outcomes. Models were adjusted for country fixed effects, survey-year fixed effects, clustering, and demographic and socioeconomic covariates for the child, mother, and household. FINDINGS: Sample sizes were 462,854 for stunting, 485,152 for underweight, and 459,538 for wasting. Overall, 35·6% (95% CI 35·4-35·9) of young children were stunted (ranging from 8·7% [7·6-9·7] in Jordan to 51·1% [49·1-53·1] in Niger), 22·7% (22·5-22·9) were underweight (ranging from 1·8% [1·3-2·3] in Jordan to 41·7% [41·1-42·3] in India), and 12·8% (12·6-12·9) were wasted (ranging from 1·2% [0·6-1·8] in Peru to 28·8% [27·5-30·0] in Burkina Faso). At the country level, no association was seen between average changes in the prevalence of child undernutrition outcomes and average growth of per-head GDP. In models adjusted only for country and survey-year fixed effects, a 5% increase in per-head GDP was associated with an odds ratio (OR) of 0·993 (95% CI 0·989-0·995) for stunting, 0·986 (0·982-0·990) for underweight, and 0·984 (0·981-0·986) for wasting. ORs after adjustment for the full set of covariates were 0·996 (0·993-1·000) for stunting, 0·989 (0·985-0·992) for underweight, and 0·983 (0·979-0·986) for wasting. These findings were consistent across various subsamples and for alternative variable specifications. Notably, no association was seen between per-head GDP and undernutrition in young children from the poorest household wealth quintile. ORs for the poorest wealth quintile were 0·997 (0·990-1·004) for stunting, 0·999 (0·991-1·008) for underweight, and 0·991 (0·978-1·004) for wasting. INTERPRETATION: A quantitatively very small to null association was seen between increases in per-head GDP and reductions in early childhood undernutrition, emphasising the need for direct health investments to improve the nutritional status of children in low-income and middle-income countries. FUNDING: None.
背景:经济增长被广泛认为是改善人口健康状况的必要条件,而且往往也是充分条件。我们旨在评估宏观经济增长是否与低收入和中等收入国家儿童早期营养不足的减少有关。
方法:我们分析了来自 36 个国家的 121 次人口与健康调查的数据,这些调查于 1990 年 1 月 1 日至 2011 年 12 月 31 日进行。样本包括 0-35 个月龄儿童的全国代表性横断面调查,其结果变量是发育迟缓、体重不足和消瘦。主要的独立变量是按人头计算的不变价格国内生产总值(GDP),并根据购买力平价进行了调整。我们使用逻辑回归模型来估计人均 GDP 变化与儿童营养不足结果变化之间的关联。模型调整了国家固定效应、调查年份固定效应、聚类以及儿童、母亲和家庭的人口和社会经济协变量。
结果:发育迟缓的样本量为 462854 例,体重不足为 485152 例,消瘦为 459538 例。总体而言,35.6%(95%CI 35.4-35.9)的幼儿发育迟缓(范围从约旦的 8.7%[7.6-9.7]到尼日尔的 51.1%[49.1-53.1]),22.7%(22.5-22.9)体重不足(范围从约旦的 1.8%[1.3-2.3]到印度的 41.7%[41.1-42.3]),12.8%(12.6-12.9)消瘦(范围从秘鲁的 1.2%[0.6-1.8]到布基纳法索的 28.8%[27.5-30.0])。在国家层面,儿童营养不足结果的平均变化与人均 GDP 的平均增长之间没有关联。在仅调整国家和调查年份固定效应的模型中,人均 GDP 增加 5%与发育迟缓的比值比(OR)为 0.993(95%CI 0.989-0.995),体重不足为 0.986(0.982-0.990),消瘦为 0.984(0.981-0.986)。在调整了整套协变量后,发育迟缓的 OR 为 0.996(0.993-1.000),体重不足为 0.989(0.985-0.992),消瘦为 0.983(0.979-0.986)。这些发现与各种子样本一致,并且替代变量的规格也一致。值得注意的是,在最贫穷家庭财富五分位数的幼儿中,人均 GDP 与营养不良之间没有关联。最贫穷财富五分位数的 OR 为发育迟缓的 0.997(0.990-1.004),体重不足为 0.999(0.991-1.008),消瘦为 0.991(0.978-1.004)。
解释:人均 GDP 增长与儿童早期营养不足减少之间存在非常小到几乎没有关联,这强调了需要直接进行卫生投资,以改善低收入和中等收入国家儿童的营养状况。
资助:无。
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