Mizuno S, Akiba S
Department of Statistics, Radiation Effects Research Foundation, Hiroshima.
Jpn J Cancer Res. 1989 Aug;80(8):727-31. doi: 10.1111/j.1349-7006.1989.tb01705.x.
For the purpose of understanding human carcinogenesis and making a quantitative prediction of lung cancer mortality in a general population of Japanese males, we evaluated a statistical model which assumes lung cancer mortality to be proportional to the 4.5th power of the effective duration of cigarette smoking among smokers and to the 4th power of age among nonsmokers, using Japan Vital Statistics data. For the male birth cohorts aged 30-69 in 1965 in the age range of 40-79, studied by quinquennial calendar time intervals from 1955 to 1985, it was found that, (i) for nonsmokers, the estimated lung cancer mortality rate was comparable to the rates reported in the US or Britain, assigning 20 to 25% proportions of nonsmokers, (ii) for smokers, the estimated duration of smoking was shorter than would be expected from the age when smoking was started according to various epidemiological surveys, and (iii) the estimated average numbers of cigarettes smoked per day by smokers were similar to those obtained by epidemiological studies, when these were estimated by incorporating a part of Doll and Peto's dose-response relationship. Also discussed is the possibility of assessing lung cancer mortality risk for Japanese male smokers by means of the statistical model, alpha x (cigarettes smoked per day + beta) x (age - (age started smoking) - gamma)4.5.
为了理解人类致癌作用并对日本男性普通人群的肺癌死亡率进行定量预测，我们使用日本生命统计数据评估了一个统计模型，该模型假定肺癌死亡率与吸烟者吸烟有效时长的4.5次幂成正比，与非吸烟者年龄的4次幂成正比。对于1965年年龄在30 - 69岁之间、在1955年至1985年期间按每五年日历时间间隔进行研究的男性出生队列，发现：(i) 对于非吸烟者，估计的肺癌死亡率与美国或英国报告的死亡率相当，非吸烟者比例为20%至25%；(ii) 对于吸烟者，估计的吸烟时长比根据各种流行病学调查从开始吸烟年龄预期的要短；(iii) 当通过纳入多尔和皮托剂量反应关系的一部分来估计吸烟者每天平均吸烟支数时，其与流行病学研究获得的结果相似。还讨论了通过统计模型α×(每天吸烟支数 + β)×(年龄 - (开始吸烟年龄) - γ)^4.5评估日本男性吸烟者肺癌死亡风险的可能性。
