Morfeld Peter, Groneberg David A, Spallek Michael F
Institute for Occupational Epidemiology and Risk Assessment (IERA) of Evonik Industries, Essen, Germany; Institute and Policlinic for Occupational Medicine, Environmental Medicine and Preventive Research, University of Cologne, Cologne, Germany.
Institute of Occupational Medicine, Social Medicine and Environmental Medicine, Goethe-University, Frankfurt am Main, Germany.
PLoS One. 2014 Aug 12;9(8):e102999. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0102999. eCollection 2014.
BACKGROUND: Low Emission Zones (LEZs) are areas where the most polluting vehicles are restricted from entering. The effectiveness of LEZs to lower ambient exposures is under debate. This study focused on LEZs that restricted cars of Euro 1 standard without appropriate retrofitting systems from entering and estimated LEZ effects on NO2, NO, and NOx ( = NO2+NO). METHODS: Continuous half-hour and diffuse sampler 4-week average NO2, NO, and NOx concentrations measured inside and outside LEZs in 17 German cities of 6 federal states (2005-2009) were analysed as matched quadruplets (two pairs of simultaneously measured index values inside LEZ and reference values outside LEZ, one pair measured before and one after introducing LEZs with time differences that equal multiples of 364 days) by multiple linear and log-linear fixed-effects regression modelling (covariables: e.g., wind velocity, amount of precipitation, height of inversion base, school holidays, truck-free periods). Additionally, the continuous half-hour data was collapsed into 4-week averages and pooled with the diffuse sampler data to perform joint analysis. RESULTS: More than 3,000,000 quadruplets of continuous measurements (half-hour averages) were identified at 38 index and 45 reference stations. Pooling with diffuse sampler data from 15 index and 10 reference stations lead to more than 4,000 quadruplets for joint analyses of 4-week averages. Mean LEZ effects on NO2, NO, and NOx concentrations (reductions) were estimated to be at most -2 µg/m(3) (or -4%). The 4-week averages of NO2 concentrations at index stations after LEZ introduction were 55 µg/m(3) (median and mean values) or 82 µg/m(3) (95th percentile). CONCLUSIONS: This is the first study investigating comprehensively the effectiveness of LEZs to reduce NO2, NO, and NOx concentrations controlling for most relevant potential confounders. Our analyses indicate that there is a statistically significant, but rather small reduction of NO2, NO, and NOx concentrations associated with LEZs.
背景:低排放区(LEZs)是限制污染最严重车辆进入的区域。低排放区降低环境暴露的有效性存在争议。本研究聚焦于限制未配备适当改造系统的欧1标准汽车进入的低排放区,并评估了低排放区对二氧化氮(NO₂)、一氧化氮(NO)和氮氧化物(NOₓ,即NO₂ + NO)的影响。 方法:对德国6个联邦州的17个城市低排放区内和区外连续半小时及扩散采样器测量的4周平均NO₂、NO和NOₓ浓度(2005 - 2009年)进行分析,采用多重线性和对数线性固定效应回归模型将其作为匹配四元组(两对同时测量的低排放区内指标值和区外参考值,一对在引入低排放区之前测量,另一对在引入低排放区之后测量,时间差为364天的倍数)进行分析(协变量:例如风速、降水量、逆温层底部高度、学校假期、无卡车时段)。此外,将连续半小时数据汇总为4周平均值,并与扩散采样器数据合并进行联合分析。 结果:在38个指标站和45个参考站识别出超过300万个连续测量四元组(半小时平均值)。与15个指标站和10个参考站的扩散采样器数据合并后,得到超过4000个四元组用于4周平均值的联合分析。低排放区对NO₂、NO和NOₓ浓度的平均影响(降低值)估计最大为 -2 μg/m³(或 -4%)。引入低排放区后指标站NO₂浓度的4周平均值为55 μg/m³(中位数和平均值)或82 μg/m³(第95百分位数)。 结论:这是第一项全面研究低排放区在控制最相关潜在混杂因素情况下降低NO₂、NO和NOₓ浓度有效性的研究。我们的分析表明,与低排放区相关的NO₂、NO和NOₓ浓度在统计学上有显著但相当小的降低。
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