Hofäcker D, Naumann E
Lehrstuhl für Methoden der quantitativen Sozialforschung, Universität Duisburg-Essen, Essen, Germany,
Z Gerontol Geriatr. 2015 Jul;48(5):473-9. doi: 10.1007/s00391-014-0669-y.
Population ageing, demographic change and the financial crisis has put the financial sustainability of the German pension system at risk. In reaction to these challenges, Germany recently abandoned generous early retirement policies and moved towards policies encouraging higher employment among the elderly.
In this article we evaluate how these labour market and pension policies affected the retirement decisions of older workers in Germany over the last three decades. Complementing previous research on early retirement, we focus in particular on those working past the mandatory retirement age of 65 years and examine whether the composition of this group of postretirement-age workers has changed over time.
We analyse pooled cross-sectional data from three rounds of the German Ageing Survey which allow us to cover the last three decades from 1980 to 2008. Estimating multinomial logit models we distinguish explanatory factors on the individual, organizational and institutional level that frame the decision to leave the labour market before the age of 65, to stop working at 65 or to work past 65.
Over the last three decades, the share of German workers leaving the labour market after the mandatory retirement age of 65 has increased markedly. This trend towards working longer has changed particularly among the low educated workforce which in previous decades traditionally has exhibited a tendency to retire early. In contrast to high-skilled workers, the decision to work longer among low-educated workers is mainly driven by financial need (and is usually not in line with their desire or their ability to work for longer).
Our findings suggest an increase in social inequality in retirement decisions as a result of the policy shift towards activation. We conclude by arguing for a more fine-grained understanding of the reasons why people work longer. Such research would provide valuable insights into how to design future labour market and pension reforms preventing a rise in social inequalities.
人口老龄化、人口结构变化和金融危机使德国养老金体系的财务可持续性面临风险。为应对这些挑战,德国最近摒弃了慷慨的提前退休政策,转而推行鼓励老年人提高就业水平的政策。
在本文中,我们评估了这些劳动力市场和养老金政策在过去三十年中如何影响德国老年工人的退休决策。作为对先前关于提前退休研究的补充,我们特别关注那些在65岁法定退休年龄之后仍在工作的人,并研究这一退休年龄后仍在工作群体的构成是否随时间发生了变化。
我们分析了三轮德国老龄化调查的汇总横截面数据,这些数据使我们能够涵盖1980年至2008年的过去三十年。通过估计多项逻辑回归模型,我们区分了个体、组织和制度层面的解释因素,这些因素构成了在65岁之前离开劳动力市场、在65岁时停止工作或在65岁之后仍继续工作的决策。
在过去三十年中,德国工人在65岁法定退休年龄之后离开劳动力市场的比例显著增加。这种延长工作时间的趋势在低学历劳动力中变化尤为明显,在过去几十年里,低学历劳动力传统上有提前退休的倾向。与高技能工人不同,低学历工人延长工作时间的决定主要是出于经济需要(而且通常不符合他们延长工作的愿望或能力)。
我们的研究结果表明,由于政策转向激活政策,退休决策中的社会不平等有所增加。我们最后主张更细致地理解人们延长工作时间的原因。这样的研究将为如何设计未来的劳动力市场和养老金改革提供宝贵的见解,以防止社会不平等加剧。