独立二项比例差异的置信区间:使用图形方法和移动平均线进行比较
Confidence intervals for the difference between independent binomial proportions: comparison using a graphical approach and moving averages.
作者信息
Laud Peter J, Dane Aaron
机构信息
Statistical Services Unit, University of Sheffield, Hicks Building, Hounsfield Road, Sheffield, South Yorkshire, S3 7RH, UK.
出版信息
Pharm Stat. 2014 Sep-Oct;13(5):294-308. doi: 10.1002/pst.1631. Epub 2014 Aug 27.
This paper uses graphical methods to illustrate and compare the coverage properties of a number of methods for calculating confidence intervals for the difference between two independent binomial proportions. We investigate both small-sample and large-sample properties of both two-sided and one-sided coverage, with an emphasis on asymptotic methods. In terms of aligning the smoothed coverage probability surface with the nominal confidence level, we find that the score-based methods on the whole have the best two-sided coverage, although they have slight deficiencies for confidence levels of 90% or lower. For an easily taught, hand-calculated method, the Brown-Li 'Jeffreys' method appears to perform reasonably well, and in most situations, it has better one-sided coverage than the widely recommended alternatives. In general, we find that the one-sided properties of many of the available methods are surprisingly poor. In fact, almost none of the existing asymptotic methods achieve equal coverage on both sides of the interval, even with large sample sizes, and consequently if used as a non-inferiority test, the type I error rate (which is equal to the one-sided non-coverage probability) can be inflated. The only exception is the Gart-Nam 'skewness-corrected' method, which we express using modified notation in order to include a bias correction for improved small-sample performance, and an optional continuity correction for those seeking more conservative coverage. Using a weighted average of two complementary methods, we also define a new hybrid method that almost matches the performance of the Gart-Nam interval.
本文使用图形方法来说明和比较多种计算两个独立二项比例之差的置信区间的方法的覆盖特性。我们研究了双边和单边覆盖的小样本和大样本特性,重点是渐近方法。在使平滑覆盖概率曲面与名义置信水平对齐方面,我们发现基于得分的方法总体上具有最佳的双边覆盖,尽管它们在90%或更低的置信水平上存在轻微缺陷。对于一种易于教授且可手动计算的方法,Brown-Li“杰弗里斯”方法似乎表现相当不错,并且在大多数情况下,它的单边覆盖比广泛推荐的替代方法更好。总体而言,我们发现许多现有方法的单边特性出奇地差。事实上,几乎没有一种现有的渐近方法在区间两侧实现相等的覆盖,即使样本量很大,因此如果用作非劣效性检验,I型错误率(等于单边非覆盖概率)可能会膨胀。唯一的例外是Gart-Nam“偏度校正”方法,我们使用修改后的符号来表示它,以便包括用于改善小样本性能的偏差校正,以及为那些寻求更保守覆盖的人提供的可选连续性校正。通过对两种互补方法进行加权平均,我们还定义了一种新的混合方法,其性能几乎与Gart-Nam区间相匹配。