Soni Kirti, Parmar Kulwinder Singh, Kapoor Sangeeta
CSIR-National Physical Laboratory, Delhi, India,
Environ Sci Pollut Res Int. 2015 Mar;22(5):3652-71. doi: 10.1007/s11356-014-3561-9. Epub 2014 Sep 26.
A study of the assessment and management of air quality was carried out at 11 coal mines in India. Long-term observations (about 13 years, March 2000-December 2012) and modeling of aerosol loading over coal mines in India are analyzed in the present study. In this respect, the Box-Jenkins popular autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model was applied to simulate the monthly mean Terra Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) aerosol optical depth (AOD550 nm) over 11 sites in the coal mines region. The ARIMA model was found as the most suitable model with least normalized Bayesian information criterion (BIC) and root mean square error and high value of R (2). Estimation was done with the Ljung-Box test. Finally, a forecast for a 3-year period from January 2013 to December 2015 was calculated which showed that the model forecasted values are following the observed trend quite well over all mining areas in India. The average values of AOD for the next 3 years (2013-2015) at all sites are found to be 0.575 ± 0.13 (Raniganj), 0.452 ± 0.12 (Jharia), 0.339 ± 0.13 (Bokaro), 0.280 ± 0.09 (Bishrampur), 0.353 ± 0.13 (Korba), 0.308 ± 0.08 (Talcher), 0.370 ± 0.11 (Wardha), 0.35 ± 0.10 (Adilabad), 0.325 ± 0.09 (Warangal), 0.467 ± 0.09 (Godavari Valley), and 0.236 ± 0.07 (Cuddapah), respectively. In addition, long-term lowest monthly mean AOD550 values are observed over Bishrampur followed by Cuddapah, Talcher, Warangal, Adilabad, Korba, Wardha, Godavari Valley, Jharia, and Raniganj. Raniganj and Jharia exhibit the highest AOD values due to opencast mines and extensive mining activities as well as a large number of coal fires. Similarly, the highest AOD values are observed during the monsoon season among all four seasons over all the mining sites. Raniganj exhibits the highest AOD value at all seasons and at all sites. In contrast, the lowest seasonal AOD values are observed during the post-monsoon season over Raniganj, Talcher, Wardha, Adilabad, Warangal, and Godavari Valley. Similarly, over Jharia, Bokaro, Bishrampur, Korba, and Cuddapah, the lowest AOD values are found in the winter season. Increasing trends in AOD550 have been observed over Raniganj, Bokaro, Bishrampur, Korba, Talcher, and Wardha as well as over Adilabad and Godavari Valley, which is in agreement with previous works. Negative or decreasing AOD trend is found only over Jharia, Warangal, and Cuddapah without being statistically significant. Seasonal trends in AODs have also been studied in the present paper.
在印度的11个煤矿开展了空气质量评估与管理研究。本研究分析了印度煤矿地区长期观测数据（约13年，2000年3月至2012年12月）和气溶胶负荷建模情况。在这方面，运用了流行的Box-Jenkins自回归积分滑动平均（ARIMA）模型来模拟煤矿地区11个站点的月度平均中分辨率成像光谱仪（MODIS）气溶胶光学厚度（AOD550 nm）。结果发现，ARIMA模型是最合适的模型，其贝叶斯信息准则（BIC）归一化程度最低，均方根误差最小，R（2）值较高。采用Ljung-Box检验进行估计。最后，计算了2013年1月至2015年12月这3年期间的预测值，结果表明该模型预测值与印度所有矿区的观测趋势吻合良好。所有站点未来3年（2013 - 2015年）的AOD平均值分别为：拉尼根杰0.575±0.13、贾里亚0.452±0.12、博卡罗0.339±0.13、比什兰布尔0.280±0.09、科尔巴0.353±0.13、塔尔切尔0.308±0.08、瓦尔达0.370±0.11、阿迪拉巴德0.35±0.10、瓦朗加尔0.325±0.09、戈达瓦里河谷0.467±0.09、古德伯0.236±0.07。此外，比什兰布尔观测到的长期最低月度平均AOD550值，其次是古德伯、塔尔切尔、瓦朗加尔、阿迪拉巴德、科尔巴、瓦尔达、戈达瓦里河谷、贾里亚和拉尼根杰。由于露天煤矿、广泛的采矿活动以及大量煤火，拉尼根杰和贾里亚的AOD值最高。同样，在所有矿区的四个季节中，季风季节观测到的AOD值最高。拉尼根杰在所有季节和所有站点的AOD值最高。相比之下，拉尼根杰、塔尔切尔、瓦尔达、阿迪拉巴德、瓦朗加尔和戈达瓦里河谷在季风后季节观测到的季节性AOD值最低。同样，在贾里亚、博卡罗、比什兰布尔、科尔巴和古德伯，冬季的AOD值最低。在拉尼根杰、博卡罗、比什兰布尔、科尔巴、塔尔切尔和瓦尔达以及阿迪拉巴德和戈达瓦里河谷观测到AOD550呈上升趋势，这与之前的研究结果一致。仅在贾里亚、瓦朗加尔和古德伯发现AOD呈负向或下降趋势，但无统计学意义。本文还研究了AOD的季节性趋势。
