College of Business Planning, Chongqing Technology and Business University, Chongqing, PR China.
Collaborative Innovation Center for Chongqing's Modern Trade Logistics & Supply Chain, Chongqing Technology and Business University, Chongqing, PR China.
PLoS One. 2019 Sep 6;14(9):e0221333. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0221333. eCollection 2019.
To balance the supply and demand in China's beef market, beef consumption must be scientifically and effectively forecasted. Beef consumption is affected by many factors and is characterized by gray uncertainty. Therefore, gray theory can be used to forecast the beef consumption, In this paper, the structural defects and unreasonable parameter design of the traditional gray model are analyzed. Then, a new gray model termed, EGM(1,1,r), is built, and the modeling conditions and error checking methods of EGM(1,1,r) are studied. Then, EGM(1,1,r) is used to simulate and forecast China's beef consumption. The results show that both the simulation and prediction precisions of the new model are better than those of other gray models. Finally, the new model is used to forecast China's beef consumption for the period from 2019-2025. The findings will serve as an important reference for the Chinese government in formulating policies to ensure the balance between the supply and demand for Chinese beef.
为了平衡中国牛肉市场的供求关系，必须科学有效地预测牛肉消费。牛肉消费受多种因素影响，具有灰色不确定性。因此，可以利用灰色理论来预测牛肉消费。本文分析了传统灰色模型的结构缺陷和不合理的参数设计。然后，建立了一个新的灰色模型，称为 EGM(1,1,r)，并研究了 EGM(1,1,r)的建模条件和误差检验方法。然后，利用 EGM(1,1,r)对中国牛肉消费进行模拟和预测。结果表明，新模型的模拟和预测精度均优于其他灰色模型。最后，利用新模型对 2019-2025 年中国牛肉消费进行预测。研究结果将为中国政府制定政策以确保中国牛肉供求平衡提供重要参考。
