Kim Jong-Hoon, Rho Seong-Hwan
International Vaccine Institute, 1 Gwanak-ro, Gwanak-gu, Seoul, Korea 151-742; Simulacre Modeling Group, 4 Baekbeom-ro 45-gil, Yongsan-gu, Seoul, Korea 140-897.
Simulacre Modeling Group, 4 Baekbeom-ro 45-gil, Yongsan-gu, Seoul, Korea 140-897.
J Theor Biol. 2015 Jan 7;364:266-74. doi: 10.1016/j.jtbi.2014.09.026. Epub 2014 Sep 28.
One drawback of oral polio vaccine (OPV) is the potential reversion to more transmissible, virulent circulating vaccine-derived polioviruses (cVDPVs), which may cause outbreaks of paralytic poliomyelitis. Previous modeling studies of the transmission of cVDPVs assume an unrealistic homogeneous mixing of the population and/or ignore that OPV viruses and cVDPVs compete for susceptibles, which we show is a key to understanding the dynamics of the transmission of cVDPVs. We examined the transmission of OPV viruses and cVDPVs on heterogeneous, dynamic contact networks using differential equation-based and individual-based models. Despite the lower transmissibility, OPV viruses may outcompete more transmissible cVDPVs in the short run by spreading extensively before cVDPVs emerge. If viruses become endemic, however, cVDPVs eventually dominate and force OPV viruses to extinction. This study improves our understanding of the emergence of cVDPVs and helps develop more detailed models to plan a policy to control paralytic polio associated with the continued use of OPV in many countries.
口服脊髓灰质炎疫苗（OPV）的一个缺点是可能会逆向演变成更具传播性、毒性更强的循环疫苗衍生脊髓灰质炎病毒（cVDPV），这可能会引发麻痹性脊髓灰质炎疫情。先前关于cVDPV传播的模型研究假定人群存在不切实际的均匀混合，和/或忽略了OPV病毒与cVDPV会争夺易感人群，而我们的研究表明这是理解cVDPV传播动态的关键。我们使用基于微分方程和基于个体的模型，研究了OPV病毒和cVDPV在异质动态接触网络中的传播情况。尽管传播性较低，但OPV病毒可能会在短期内通过在cVDPV出现之前广泛传播，从而胜过传播性更强的cVDPV。然而，如果病毒成为地方病，cVDPV最终会占据主导地位并迫使OPV病毒灭绝。这项研究增进了我们对cVDPV出现情况的理解，并有助于开发更详细的模型，以便制定政策来控制许多国家因继续使用OPV而导致的麻痹性脊髓灰质炎。
