J Air Waste Manag Assoc. 2014 Sep;64(9):979-94. doi: 10.1080/10962247.2014.923351.
Population growth and the pressures spawned by increasing demands for energy and resource-intensive goods, foods, and services are driving unsustainable growth in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Recent GHG emission trends are consistent with worst-case scenarios of the previous decade. Dramatic and near-term emission reductions likely will be needed to ameliorate the potential deleterious impacts of climate change. To achieve such reductions, fundamental changes are required in the way that energy is generated and used. New technologies must be developed and deployed at a rapid rate. Advances in carbon capture and storage, renewable, nuclear and transportation technologies are particularly important; however, global research and development efforts related to these technologies currently appear to fall short relative to needs. Even with a proactive and international mitigation effort, humanity will need to adapt to climate change, but the adaptation needs and damages will be far greater if mitigation activities are not pursued in earnest. In this review, research is highlighted that indicates increasing global and regional temperatures and ties climate changes to increasing GHG emissions. GHG mitigation targets necessary for limiting future global temperature increases are discussed, including how factors such as population growth and the growing energy intensity of the developing world will make these reduction targets more challenging. Potential technological pathways for meeting emission reduction targets are examined, barriers are discussed, and global and US. modeling results are presented that suggest that the necessary pathways will require radically transformed electric and mobile sectors. While geoengineering options have been proposed to allow more time for serious emission reductions, these measures are at the conceptual stage with many unanswered cost, environmental, and political issues. Implications: This paper lays out the case that mitigating the potential for catastrophic climate change will be a monumental challenge, requiring the global community to transform its energy system in an aggressive, coordinated, and timely manner. If this challenge is to be met, new technologies will have to be developed and deployed at a rapid rate. Advances in carbon capture and storage, renewable, nuclear, and transportation technologies are particularly important. Even with an aggressive international mitigation effort, humanity will still need to adapt to significant climate change.
人口增长以及对能源和资源密集型商品、食品和服务日益增长的需求所带来的压力，正在推动温室气体（GHG）排放的不可持续增长。最近的 GHG 排放趋势与过去十年的最坏情况预测一致。为了减轻气候变化的潜在有害影响，可能需要大幅减少近期的排放。要实现这种减排，就需要从根本上改变能源的产生和使用方式。必须快速开发和部署新技术。碳捕集与封存、可再生能源、核能和运输技术的进步尤为重要；然而，目前与这些技术相关的全球研发工作似乎远远不能满足需求。即使采取积极主动的国际缓解措施，人类也将需要适应气候变化，但如果不认真开展缓解活动，适应需求和损害将大得多。在这篇综述中，强调了一些研究，这些研究表明全球和区域气温上升与温室气体排放增加有关。讨论了为限制未来全球温度升高而需要实现的温室气体减排目标，包括人口增长和发展中世界能源强度不断提高等因素将如何使这些减排目标更具挑战性。还研究了实现减排目标的潜在技术途径，讨论了障碍，并提出了全球和美国的模型结果，表明必要的途径将需要彻底改变电力和移动部门。虽然已经提出了地球工程方案，以便为认真减少排放争取更多时间，但这些措施仍处于概念阶段，存在许多未解决的成本、环境和政治问题。影响：本文阐述了一个观点，即缓解灾难性气候变化的潜力将是一个巨大的挑战，需要全球社会以积极、协调和及时的方式转变其能源系统。如果要应对这一挑战，就必须快速开发和部署新技术。碳捕集与封存、可再生能源、核能和运输技术的进步尤为重要。即使采取积极主动的国际缓解措施，人类仍将需要适应重大的气候变化。
