Vink Margaretha Annelie, Bootsma Martinus Christoffel Jozef, Wallinga Jacco
Am J Epidemiol. 2014 Nov 1;180(9):865-75. doi: 10.1093/aje/kwu209. Epub 2014 Oct 7.
The serial interval of an infectious disease represents the duration between symptom onset of a primary case and symptom onset of its secondary cases. A good evidence base for such values is essential, because they allow investigators to identify epidemiologic links between cases and serve as an important parameter in epidemic transmission models used to design infection control strategies. We reviewed the literature for available data sets containing serial intervals and for reported values of serial intervals. We were able to collect data on outbreaks within households, which we reanalyzed to infer a mean serial interval using a common statistical method. We estimated the mean serial intervals for influenza A(H3N2) (2.2 days), pandemic influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 (2.8 days), respiratory syncytial virus (7.5 days), measles (11.7 days), varicella (14.0 days), smallpox (17.7 days), mumps (18.0 days), rubella (18.3 days), and pertussis (22.8 days). For varicella, we found an evidence-based value that deviates substantially from the 21 days commonly used in transmission models. This value of the serial interval for pertussis is, to the best of our knowledge, the first that is based on observations. Our review reveals that, for most infectious diseases, there is very limited evidence to support the serial intervals that are often cited.
传染病的传播间隔是指原发病例症状出现与继发病例症状出现之间的持续时间。获取此类数值的可靠证据基础至关重要，因为这些数值有助于研究人员识别病例之间的流行病学联系，并作为用于设计感染控制策略的流行病传播模型中的一个重要参数。我们查阅了文献，查找包含传播间隔的可用数据集以及已报告的传播间隔值。我们能够收集家庭内疫情爆发的数据，并使用一种常用的统计方法对其重新分析，以推断平均传播间隔。我们估计了甲型（H3N2）流感（2.2天）、甲型（H1N1）pdm09大流行性流感（2.8天）、呼吸道合胞病毒（7.5天）、麻疹（11.7天）、水痘（14.0天）、天花（17.7天）、腮腺炎（18.0天）、风疹（18.3天）和百日咳（22.8天）的平均传播间隔。对于水痘，我们发现了一个基于证据的值，该值与传播模型中常用的21天有很大偏差。据我们所知，这个百日咳传播间隔值是首个基于观察得出的。我们的综述表明，对于大多数传染病来说，支持经常引用的传播间隔的证据非常有限。
