Smith Pete
Scottish Food Security Alliance-Crops & Institute of Biological and Environmental Sciences,University of Aberdeen,23 St Machar Drive,Aberdeen AB24 3UU,UK.
Proc Nutr Soc. 2015 Aug;74(3):187-90. doi: 10.1017/S0029665114001517. Epub 2014 Oct 16.
In 1798, Thomas Robert Malthus published 'An essay on the principle of population' in which he concluded that: 'The power of population is so superior to the power of the earth to produce subsistence for man, that premature death must in some shape or other visit the human race.' Over the following century he was criticised for underestimating the potential for scientific and technological innovation to provide positive change. Since then, he has been proved wrong, with a number of papers published during the past few decades pointing out why he has been proved wrong so many times. In the present paper, I briefly review the main changes in food production in the past that have allowed us to continue to meet ever growing demand for food, and I examine the possibility of these same innovations delivering food security in the future. On the basis of recent studies, I conclude that technological innovation can no longer be relied upon to prove Malthus wrong as we strive to feed 9-10 billion people by 2050. Unless we are prepared to accept a wide range of significant, undesirable environmental consequences, technology alone cannot provide food security in 2050. Food demand, particularly the demand for livestock products, will need to be managed if we are to continue to prove Malthus wrong into the future.
1798年，托马斯·罗伯特·马尔萨斯发表了《人口原理》，他在其中得出结论：“人口增长的力量远远超过地球为人类生产维持生计所需物资的能力，因此，人类必然会以某种形式遭遇过早死亡。”在接下来的一个世纪里，他因低估科学技术创新带来积极变化的潜力而受到批评。从那时起，他被证明是错误的，过去几十年发表的许多论文都指出了他多次被证明错误的原因。在本文中，我简要回顾了过去粮食生产的主要变化，正是这些变化使我们能够持续满足不断增长的粮食需求，并且我探讨了这些同样的创新在未来保障粮食安全的可能性。基于最近的研究，我得出结论，在我们努力到2050年养活90亿至100亿人口之际，不能再依赖技术创新来证明马尔萨斯是错误的。除非我们准备好接受一系列重大的、不良的环境后果，否则仅靠技术无法在2050年保障粮食安全。如果我们要在未来继续证明马尔萨斯是错误的，就需要对粮食需求，尤其是对畜产品的需求加以管理。
