Ford Laura, Kirk Martyn, Glass Kathryn, Hall Gillian
Emerg Infect Dis. 2014 Nov;20(11):1865-71. doi: 10.3201/eid2011.131316.
In Australia circa 2010, 4.1 million (90% credible interval [CrI] 2.3-6.4 million) episodes of foodborne gastroenteritis occurred, many of which might have resulted in sequelae. We estimated the number of illnesses, hospitalizations, and deaths from Guillain-Barré syndrome, hemolytic uremic syndrome, irritable bowel syndrome, and reactive arthritis that were associated with contaminated food in Australia. Data from published studies, hospital records, and mortality reports were combined with multipliers to adjust for different transmission routes. We used Monte Carlo simulation to estimate median estimates and 90% CrIs. In Australia, circa 2010, we estimated that 35,840 (90% CrI 25,000-54,000) illnesses, 1,080 (90% CrI 700-1,600) hospitalizations, and 10 (90% CrI 5-14) deaths occurred from foodborne gastroenteritis-associated sequelae. Campylobacter spp. infection was responsible for 80% of incident cases. Reducing the incidence of campylobacteriosis and other foodborne diseases would minimize the health effects of sequelae.
在2010年前后的澳大利亚,发生了410万例食源性肠胃炎(90%可信区间[CrI]为230万 - 640万例),其中许多可能导致了后遗症。我们估计了澳大利亚与受污染食物相关的吉兰 - 巴雷综合征、溶血性尿毒症综合征、肠易激综合征和反应性关节炎所引发的疾病、住院和死亡人数。将已发表研究、医院记录和死亡率报告中的数据与乘数相结合,以调整不同的传播途径。我们使用蒙特卡罗模拟来估计中位数估计值和90%可信区间。在2010年前后的澳大利亚,我们估计食源性肠胃炎相关后遗症导致35840例(90% CrI为25000 - 54000例)疾病、1080例(90% CrI为700 - 1600例)住院和10例(90% CrI为5 - 14例)死亡。弯曲杆菌属感染占发病病例的80%。降低弯曲杆菌病和其他食源性疾病的发病率将使后遗症对健康的影响降至最低。