De Stavola Bianca L, Daniel Rhian M, Ploubidis George B, Micali Nadia
Am J Epidemiol. 2015 Jan 1;181(1):64-80. doi: 10.1093/aje/kwu239. Epub 2014 Dec 11.
The study of mediation has a long tradition in the social sciences and a relatively more recent one in epidemiology. The first school is linked to path analysis and structural equation models (SEMs), while the second is related mostly to methods developed within the potential outcomes approach to causal inference. By giving model-free definitions of direct and indirect effects and clear assumptions for their identification, the latter school has formalized notions intuitively developed in the former and has greatly increased the flexibility of the models involved. However, through its predominant focus on nonparametric identification, the causal inference approach to effect decomposition via natural effects is limited to settings that exclude intermediate confounders. Such confounders are naturally dealt with (albeit with the caveats of informality and modeling inflexibility) in the SEM framework. Therefore, it seems pertinent to revisit SEMs with intermediate confounders, armed with the formal definitions and (parametric) identification assumptions from causal inference. Here we investigate: 1) how identification assumptions affect the specification of SEMs, 2) whether the more restrictive SEM assumptions can be relaxed, and 3) whether existing sensitivity analyses can be extended to this setting. Data from the Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children (1990-2005) are used for illustration.
中介效应的研究在社会科学领域有着悠久的传统,而在流行病学领域则相对较新。第一派与路径分析和结构方程模型(SEMs)相关,而第二派主要与因果推断的潜在结果方法中发展出的方法有关。通过给出直接效应和间接效应的无模型定义以及识别它们的明确假设,后一派将前一派直观发展出的概念形式化,并极大地提高了所涉及模型的灵活性。然而,由于其主要关注非参数识别,通过自然效应进行效应分解的因果推断方法仅限于排除中间混杂因素的情况。在结构方程模型框架中,此类混杂因素能自然地得到处理(尽管存在非形式化和建模灵活性不足的问题)。因此,借助因果推断中的形式化定义和(参数)识别假设,重新审视带有中间混杂因素的结构方程模型似乎是恰当的。在此,我们研究:1)识别假设如何影响结构方程模型的设定,2)更具限制性的结构方程模型假设是否可以放宽,以及3)现有的敏感性分析是否可以扩展到这种情况。以雅芳亲子纵向研究(1990 - 2005年)的数据为例进行说明。