Gebrehiwot Tagel, van der Veen Anne
Laboratory for Social Interactions and Economic Behaviour (LSEB), University of Twente, P.O. Box 217, 7514 AE, Enschede, The Netherlands,
Environ Manage. 2015 Mar;55(3):588-602. doi: 10.1007/s00267-014-0415-7. Epub 2014 Dec 24.
This research investigates farmers' cognitive perceptions of risk and the behavioral intentions to undertake farm-level risk-reduction measures. It has been observed that people who are susceptible to natural hazards often fail to act, or do very little, to protect their assets or lives. To answer the question of why some people show adaptive behavior while others do not, a socio-psychological model of precautionary adaptation based on protection motivation theory and trans-theoretical stage model has been applied for the first time to areas of drought risk in the developing countries cultural context. The applicability of the integrated model is explored by means of a representative sample survey of smallholder farmers in northern Ethiopia. The result of the study showed that there is a statistically significant association between farmer's behavioral intention to undertake farm-level risk-reduction measures and the main important protection motivation model variables. High perceived vulnerability, severity of consequences, self-efficacy, and response efficacy lead to higher levels of behavioral intentions to undertake farm-level risk-reduction measures. For farmers in the action stage, self-efficacy and response efficacy were the main motivators of behavioral intention. For farmers in the contemplative stage, self-efficacy and cost appear to be the main motivators for them to act upon risk reduction, while perceived severity of consequences and cost of response actions were found to be important for farmers in the pre-contemplative stage.
本研究调查了农民对风险的认知以及采取农场层面风险降低措施的行为意图。据观察，易受自然灾害影响的人们往往未能采取行动或很少采取行动来保护自己的资产或生命。为了回答为什么有些人表现出适应性行为而另一些人却没有这个问题，一种基于保护动机理论和跨理论阶段模型的预防性适应社会心理模型首次应用于发展中国家文化背景下的干旱风险领域。通过对埃塞俄比亚北部小农户的代表性抽样调查，探讨了该综合模型的适用性。研究结果表明，农民采取农场层面风险降低措施的行为意图与主要的重要保护动机模型变量之间存在统计学上的显著关联。高感知脆弱性、后果严重性、自我效能感和反应效能感会导致采取农场层面风险降低措施的行为意图水平更高。对于处于行动阶段的农民，自我效能感和反应效能感是行为意图的主要驱动因素。对于处于沉思阶段的农民，自我效能感和成本似乎是他们采取风险降低行动的主要驱动因素，而对于处于前沉思阶段的农民，感知到的后果严重性和应对行动成本被认为是重要因素。
