University of Twente, Hengelosestraat 99, 7514 AE Enschede, Overijssel, Netherlands.
Environ Manage. 2013 Jul;52(1):29-44. doi: 10.1007/s00267-013-0039-3. Epub 2013 Jun 1.
In Ethiopia, climate change and associated risks are expected to have serious consequences for agriculture and food security. This in turn will seriously impact on the welfare of the people, particularly the rural farmers whose main livelihood depends on rain-fed agriculture. The level of impacts will mainly depend on the awareness and the level of adaptation in response to the changing climate. It is thus important to understand the role of the different factors that influence farmers' adaptation to ensure the development of appropriate policy measures and the design of successful development projects. This study examines farmers' perception of change in climatic attributes and the factors that influence farmers' choice of adaptation measures to climate change and variability. The estimated results from the climate change adaptation models indicate that level of education, age and wealth of the head of the household; access to credit and agricultural services; information on climate, and temperature all influence farmers' choices of adaptation. Moreover, lack of information on adaptation measures and lack of finance are seen as the main factors inhibiting adaptation to climate change. These conclusions were obtained with a Multinomial logit model, employing the results from a survey of 400 smallholder farmers in three districts in Tigray, northern Ethiopian.
在埃塞俄比亚，气候变化及相关风险预计将对农业和粮食安全产生严重影响。这反过来又将严重影响人民的福祉，特别是那些主要依靠雨养农业为生的农村农民。影响的程度将主要取决于对气候变化的认识和适应水平。因此，了解影响农民适应的不同因素的作用，对于确保制定适当的政策措施和成功的发展项目设计非常重要。本研究考察了农民对气候属性变化的看法，以及影响农民选择适应气候变化和变异性的措施的因素。气候变化适应模型的估计结果表明，家庭户主的教育程度、年龄和财富；获得信贷和农业服务的机会；气候和温度信息都影响着农民对适应措施的选择。此外，缺乏适应措施的信息和缺乏资金被视为制约适应气候变化的主要因素。这些结论是利用多类别逻辑模型得出的，该模型采用了对埃塞俄比亚北部提格雷三个地区 400 名小农的调查结果。
