Scalco Matthew D, Trucco Elisa M, Coffman Donna L, Colder Craig R
Department of Psychology, State University of New York at Buffalo, 204 Park Hall, Buffalo, NY, 14260-4110, USA,
J Abnorm Child Psychol. 2015 Aug;43(6):1131-43. doi: 10.1007/s10802-014-9969-3.
The robust correlation between peer and adolescent alcohol use (AU) has been taken as evidence for both socialization and selection processes in the etiology of adolescent AU. Accumulating evidence from studies using a diverse range of methodological and statistical approaches suggests that both processes are involved. A major challenge in testing whether peer AU predicts an adolescent's drinking (socialization) or whether an adolescent's drinking predicts peer AU (selection) is the myriad of potentially confounding factors that might lead to an overestimation of socialization and selection effects. After creating AU transition groups based on peer and adolescent AU across two waves (N = 765; age = 10-15; 53% female), we test whether transitions into AU by adolescents and peers predict later peer and adolescent AU respectively, using (1) propensity score analysis to balance transition groups on 26 potential confounds, (2) a longitudinal design with three waves to establish temporal precedence, and (3) both adolescent (target) and peer self-report of peer AU to disentangle effects attributable to shared reporter bias. Both selection and socialization were supported using both peer self-report of AU and adolescent-report of peer AU. Although cross-sectional analyses suggested peer self-reported models were associated with smaller effects than perceived peer AU, longitudinal analyses suggest a similar sized effect across reporter of peer AU for both selection and socialization. The implications of these findings for the etiology and treatment of adolescent AU are discussed.
同伴与青少年饮酒行为（AU）之间存在着紧密的相关性，这被视为青少年AU病因中社会化和选择过程的证据。来自使用各种方法和统计方法的研究的越来越多的证据表明，这两个过程都有涉及。在测试同伴AU是否能预测青少年的饮酒行为（社会化），或者青少年的饮酒行为是否能预测同伴AU（选择）时，一个主要挑战是众多潜在的混杂因素可能导致对社会化和选择效应的高估。在根据两波研究中的同伴和青少年AU创建了AU转变组之后（N = 765；年龄 = 10 - 15岁；53%为女性），我们进行了如下测试：青少年和同伴向AU的转变是否分别能预测后来同伴和青少年的AU，具体方法包括：（1）使用倾向得分分析在26个潜在混杂因素上平衡转变组；（2）采用三波的纵向设计来确定时间先后顺序；（3）同时使用青少年（目标对象）和同伴对同伴AU的自我报告，以厘清因共同报告偏差导致的影响。使用同伴对AU的自我报告以及青少年对同伴AU的报告，均支持了选择和社会化这两种情况。虽然横断面分析表明，同伴自我报告模型的效应比感知到的同伴AU的效应要小，但纵向分析表明，对于选择和社会化这两种情况，不同报告者所报告的同伴AU的效应大小相似。本文讨论了这些发现对青少年AU病因和治疗的意义。
