Tsai ChinLeong, Behera Swadhin K, Waseda Takuji
Graduate School of Frontier Sciences, The University of Tokyo, Japan.
1] Graduate School of Frontier Sciences, The University of Tokyo, Japan [2] Application Laboratory, JAMSTEC, Yokohama, Japan.
Sci Rep. 2015 Jan 29;5:8107. doi: 10.1038/srep08107.
Myanmar and Thailand often experience severe droughts and floods that cause irreparable damage to the socio-economy condition of both countries. In this study, the Southeastern Asian Summer Monsoon variation is found to be the main element of interannual precipitation variation of the region, more than the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The ENSO influence is evident only during the boreal spring season. Although the monsoon is the major factor, the existing Indian Monsoon Index (IMI) and Western North Pacific Monsoon Index (WNPMI) do not correlate well with the precipitation variation in the study regions of Southern Myanmar and Thailand. Therefore, a new set of indices is developed based on the regional monsoon variations and presented here for the first time. Precipitation variations in Southern Myanmar and Thailand differ as well as the elements affecting the precipitation variations in different seasons. So, separate indices are proposed for each season for Southern Myanmar and Thailand. Four new monsoon indices based on wind anomalies are formulated and are named as the Indochina Monsoon Indices. These new indices correlate better with the precipitation variations of the study region as compared to the existing IMI and WNPMI.
缅甸和泰国经常遭受严重干旱和洪水，给两国的社会经济状况造成无法弥补的损害。在本研究中，发现东南亚夏季风变化是该地区年际降水变化的主要因素，其影响超过厄尔尼诺/南方涛动（ENSO）。ENSO的影响仅在北半球春季明显。尽管季风是主要因素，但现有的印度季风指数（IMI）和西北太平洋季风指数（WNPMI）与缅甸南部和泰国研究区域的降水变化相关性不佳。因此，基于区域季风变化开发了一套新的指数，并首次在此展示。缅甸南部和泰国的降水变化不同，影响不同季节降水变化的因素也不同。所以，针对缅甸南部和泰国的每个季节都提出了单独的指数。基于风异常制定了四个新的季风指数，命名为印度支那季风指数。与现有的IMI和WNPMI相比，这些新指数与研究区域的降水变化相关性更好。
