Pacula Rosalie Liccardo, Lundberg Russell
RAND Corporation and National Bureau of Economic Research.
RAND Corporation.
Public Health Rev. 2014;35(2):1-18. doi: 10.1007/BF03391701.
Recent debates regarding liberalization of marijuana policies often rest on assumptions regarding the extent to which such policy changes would lead to a change in marijuana consumption and by whom. This paper reviews the economics literature assessing the responsiveness of consumption to changes in price and enforcement risk and explicitly considers how this responsiveness varies by different user groups. In doing so, it demonstrates how most of the research has examined responsiveness to prevalence of use, which is a composite of different user groups, rather than level of consumption among regular or heavy users, which represent the largest share of total quantities consumed. Thus, it is not possible to generate reliable estimates of the impact of liberalizing policies on either tax revenues or harms, as these outcomes are most directly influenced by the amounts consumed by regular or heavy users, not prevalence rates.
近期关于大麻政策自由化的辩论往往基于这样一些假设，即此类政策变化将在多大程度上导致大麻消费的改变以及消费群体的变化。本文回顾了经济学文献，这些文献评估了消费对价格和执法风险变化的反应，并明确考虑了这种反应在不同用户群体之间是如何变化的。通过这样做，本文表明，大多数研究考察的是对使用流行率的反应，而流行率是不同用户群体的综合体现，而非经常或重度使用者的消费水平，而这些使用者的消费量占总消费量的最大份额。因此，无法可靠估计政策自由化对税收收入或危害的影响，因为这些结果最直接受经常或重度使用者的消费量影响，而非流行率。
