Chang R W
Department of Surgery, Riyadh Armed Forces Hospital, Saudi Arabia.
Lancet. 1989 Jul 15;2(8655):143-6. doi: 10.1016/s0140-6736(89)90193-1.
Prognostic criteria based on static analysis of group statistics do not help much in decisions to withhold or withdraw therapy from intensive care unit (ICU) patients too ill to benefit, since they do not provide adequate information on the features that distinguish non-survivors from survivors. A predictive model which uses dynamic analysis of severity scores based on physiological variables is presented here along with the results of tests of the model in 831 ICU patients. 109 patients were correctly predicted to die by the model. Of 722 whose prediction was outcome unknown, 181 died. Thus, the odds for prediction of death among non-survivors were 0.376. Since there were no false predictions of death, the estimated chance of a false prediction was 0.0055.
基于群体统计静态分析的预后标准，对于那些病情过重而无法获益的重症监护病房（ICU）患者，在决定停止或撤销治疗时帮助不大，因为它们并未提供足够的信息来区分非幸存者和幸存者的特征。本文提出了一种基于生理变量对严重程度评分进行动态分析的预测模型，以及该模型在831例ICU患者中的测试结果。该模型正确预测了109例患者死亡。在722例预测结果未知的患者中，181例死亡。因此，非幸存者中死亡预测的比值为0.376。由于没有死亡的错误预测，估计错误预测的概率为0.0055。
